Trading volume on prediction markets in March reached $25.7 billion—a tenfold increase compared to $1.9 billion a year earlier. But more important than the numbers is the shift in behavior: users have stopped coming for a single event and have started returning regularly.
From One-Off Bets to Ongoing Participation
A joint report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket notes a structural shift in how people use prediction markets. The average number of active days per user in the first quarter of 2026 rose from 2.5 to 9.9—an almost fourfold increase.
This changes the nature of the tool itself. When the average user is active nearly every third day, the prediction market transforms from a platform for occasional bets on elections or sporting events into a system for ongoing monitoring of what is happening in the world. People use it not as a casino, but as a way to formalize their judgments about reality and get rewarded for it.
Dune Analytics data confirms the scale: $23.7 billion in trading volume in March versus $1.9 billion in March 2025. More than 12x growth in a year.
Sports Overtake Politics
The volume structure shows that the prediction market’s connection to political events is exaggerated. In the first quarter, sports generated $10.1 billion in trading turnover—the largest segment. Political markets accounted for $5 billion.
The explanation is simple: sporting events happen continuously—matches, tournaments, and competitions take place every day around the world. This supports a constant flow of liquidity and keeps users on the platform between major political or financial events.
Elections and geopolitics create peak demand, but sports drive the baseline activity. It is this combination that ensures volume stability.
Retail Dominates—and This Is Unusual for the Crypto Market
More than 80% of prediction market participants are retail users with trading volumes under $10,000. For the crypto market, where institutional capital increasingly sets the tone, this is an atypical picture.
One explanation is the nature of the product itself. Prediction markets offer a clear mechanic: you have an opinion on whether an event will happen, and you are willing to put money on it. This does not require an understanding of technical analysis, order book structure, or derivatives. The entry threshold is much lower than for most crypto products.
Crypto wallets are becoming the key access point. Polymarket operates on Polygon—users interact directly with the protocol, without intermediaries or centralized clearing. This distinguishes it from Kalshi, which operates as a centralized market under CFTC supervision.
$240 Billion a Year—A Forecast That No Longer Seems Like Fantasy
Industry forecasts from the report point to a potential annual volume of $240 billion in 2026, with a long-term target of $1 trillion. A year ago, such numbers sounded like fantasy. With a March volume of $25.7 billion, the annualized figure already exceeds $300 billion.
Momentum has been building since the 2024 U.S. presidential election, which became the point of mass introduction of prediction markets to a broad audience. Polymarket and Kalshi—the sector’s most well-known platforms—are now, according to WSJ, attracting capital at valuations above $20 billion each.
Regulation Is No Longer the Main Obstacle
Regulatory dynamics deserve special attention. The CFTC in the U.S. is showing increasing willingness to engage in dialogue with decentralized prediction markets—this removes some of the uncertainty that had been holding back institutional participation.
Polymarket has responded by updating its governance rules, adding mechanisms to counter insider trading and manipulation. This is not just compliance—it is a signal that the platform is preparing to work with a broader and more demanding audience.
Prediction markets remain one of the few on-chain applications that demonstrate real organic user base growth. While most DeFi protocols struggle to retain users, here the average number of active days per user per quarter has quadrupled. This is a structural shift.
Read More: Five Weeks of Inflows Into Crypto ETPs. One Day Decided the Fate of the Entire Series
