Real trading data shows that this week, XRP recorded realized losses of $1.93 billion. This is the largest spike since the end of 2022, according to on-chain analytics firm Santiment.
The metric takes into account coins sold below their purchase price. The figure has risen to levels last seen about 39 months ago. Traders are now closely watching it, trying to determine whether the market is nearing a reversal.
If an investor sells an asset for less than they bought it, that is a realized loss. Simply put, the trader locks in a loss instead of waiting for the price to rise. When such sales increase sharply, it is usually associated with fear or exhaustion among market participants.
According to Santiment, the current surge is the largest since a similar situation in 2022. Back then, after a spike in realized losses, XRP rose by 114% over the next eight months. That is why many are now closely monitoring the trend.
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Large volumes of realized losses are often linked to a phenomenon analysts call capitulation. This is the moment when less confident holders exit their positions amid a prolonged decline.
The paradox is that after such a sell-off, selling pressure may decrease. When most of those wanting to sell have already left the market, supply shrinks, and this sometimes creates conditions for a recovery.
In the past, sharp spikes in realized losses for many cryptocurrencies have coincided with the formation of a market bottom. This does not guarantee a reversal, but it explains the increased interest in the current data.
At Santiment, they also added that profit and loss indicators help track the market’s emotional extremes.
Analysts Share Bold Forecasts
Despite realized losses, many analysts continue to look at the long-term potential of XRP. Some of them refer to the behavior of past market cycles. By this logic, each drop forms a higher low in the next growth phase.
After the publication of new data, several crypto analysts shared their expectations for the XRP price. Analyst CryptoBull named aggressive short-term targets: $13 in March, $27 in April, and $70 in May. His calculations are based on a three-month price momentum.
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Analyst Egrag Crypto takes a broader view and relies on historical cycles. He recalled that the bottom for XRP was $0.10 in 2020 and $0.28 in 2022. That is a 2.8-fold increase between cycles.
However, not all forecasts look optimistic. A number of institutional players are revising their targets as market conditions change. Many commentators note that the movements of large holders and fund flows to exchanges continue to affect short-term dynamics.
Nevertheless, long-term assessments often take into account the potential strengthening of institutional integration of XRP and more active use of the token in payments and asset settlements. These factors are now seen as potential growth drivers in the future.
Institutional Factors Support XRP
Despite large realized losses, in the short term XRP shows relative resilience. At the time of publication, the token was trading at $1.44, up 1.55% over the past 24 hours.
However, over the month, the price fell by 25.12%. The latest growth coincided with the overall recovery of the crypto market, where bitcoin was the main driver. Institutional events are also providing additional support for sentiment.
Japanese company SBI Holdings recently issued on-chain bonds worth ¥10 billion, which is about $64.5 million. Investors in these bonds receive rewards in XRP. This is another example of real-world token use.
In Europe, banking group Société Générale launched the stablecoin EUR CoinVertible pegged to the euro on the XRP Ledger. The project was implemented as part of the bank’s multichain strategy.
In addition, spot ETFs for XRP have shown net capital inflows for three consecutive weeks. However, the pace of new investments has slowed compared to previous weeks.
