The digital asset market is approaching a state of synchronous capitulation. According to on-chain platform Santiment, several major tokens have entered rare ‘Extreme Buy Zones’—zones that have historically coincided with reversal points after deep loss realization.
This is not about price drops per se, but about the decline in realized profits: the average profit of wallets active in the last 30 days has fallen to multi-year lows.
Santiment records the largest trader losses of the year
The latest platform report shows that most leading assets are showing sharply negative 30-day MVRV metrics. This indicates that market participants who bought assets within the month are deep in the red:
- Cardano (ADA): −19.7% — Extreme Buy Zone
- Chainlink (LINK): −16.8% — Extreme Buy Zone
- Ethereum (ETH): −15.4% — Extreme Buy Zone
- Bitcoin (BTC): −11.5% — Good Buy Zone
- XRP Ledger (XRP): −10.2% — Good Buy Zone
MVRV reflects the average profitability of recently active wallets. When the indicator enters a strongly negative range, it means that almost all recent buyers are at a loss. Historically, such periods have appeared during stressful market phases and often became precursors to strong recoveries.
Why MVRV is now more important than regular technical analysis
Santiment notes that MVRV allows for a sober assessment of real oversold points. Unlike classic technical analysis levels or psychological marks, MVRV focuses on actual capital behavior.
When most buyers are ‘in the red’, two key signals appear:
- Weak hands capitulate, locking in losses.
- Large investors begin to accumulate, taking advantage of retail panic.
The synchronous plunge of several top assets into negative MVRV zones is rare and usually coincides with periods of large-scale market reset.
More and more traders are capitulating
The coincidence of negative MVRV for ADA, LINK, ETH, BTC, and XRP indicates that the market is not in a regular correction, but in a phase of multi-sided capitulation. Retail investors are massively locking in losses, while futures markets increase the pressure.
Against the backdrop of Bitcoin falling to the $92,000–$94,000 range, futures premiums are entering negative territory for the first time in months, confirming the breakdown of short-term upside.
Santiment shows that past periods of aggressive negative MVRV clusters coincided with local reversals and strong recovery impulses.
What does such a signal mean for the market?
The current state may indicate the approach of a tipping point. Historically:
- negative MVRV values → increased probability of market reversal
- deep retail losses → redistribution of assets in favor of long-term players
- synchronous drawdown of a large pool of assets → amplified effect of future rebound
However, Santiment emphasizes that MVRV is not a precise timing tool. It is an indicator of seller exhaustion that increases the probability of a reversal, but does not determine the exact moment of reversal.
Given accelerating volatility, the current situation may become one of those rare periods when the market forms a foundation for a powerful recovery—provided macro conditions stabilize and cascading liquidations cease.
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