Bitwise loudly opened trading with its Solana Staking ETF (BSOL). On the first day, trading volume reached $56 million. The spot fund from Canary Capital for XRP (XRPC) showed even more — $58 million. As a result, these became the two most successful ETF debuts of 2025.
However, the market reacted differently than expected. Just a day after trading began, the price of SOL plummeted from $205 to $165, a drop of 20% in just a week. Now the token is trading around $140. Nevertheless, analyst K33 Vetle Lunde called the inflow into the fund an ‘obvious success’.
A similar picture is seen with XRP. In the two days before and after listing, the price dropped from $2.45 to $2.20. Both tokens are at their lowest points in recent months, despite the fact that fund inflows remain positive.
At first glance, such dynamics seem illogical. But in reality, they are quite explainable. The launch came during a difficult period: investors were actively taking profits, pressure from macroeconomic factors increased, and capital inflows came not from outside, but within the existing crypto market.
Therefore, there is nothing surprising in the fact that record ETF volumes and falling prices exist in parallel. It’s simply a manifestation of different processes that do not contradict each other.
Volume is not the same as capital inflow
Headlines like “record volume” in BSOL and XRPC only speak to the number of ETF shares changing hands. But this does not mean that millions of new dollars have entered Solana or XRP.
These numbers simply reflect trading between early investors, fast capital, and market makers.
In the first days after launch, ETF trade actively, but this does not always indicate real demand for the asset. Many trades are related to short-term strategies: investors buy fund shares and simultaneously open opposite positions in futures or spot to reduce risk. This approach, especially in an unstable market environment, can increase pressure on the price rather than support it.
As for the creation of new ETF shares — these processes do occur, but on the scale of the entire crypto market, they still look insignificant. For example, Solana products collected $421 million in the first week, and later about $100 million more. But even such amounts cannot noticeably affect an asset with a billion-dollar capitalization, especially if there is an outflow from other crypto sectors at the same time.
The launch of XRPC by Canary was a bright event. On the first day, the fund attracted $245 million. However, already the following week the XRP segment as a whole showed an outflow of $15.5 million, which may indicate quick profit-taking and waning interest.
The delay between the fund launch and the market reaction is explained by the very structure of the ETF. According to Canary documents, each new share issuance requires the formation of a “basket” of 10,000 units, which can be provided in XRP or in dollars. Coins come from exchanges and custodians with whom the fund works.
Nevertheless, the main turnover on the first day does not occur at the basket formation stage, but on the secondary market. There, investors simply exchange already existing shares without the fund’s participation. Only when there is real demand does the process of creating new shares begin, which in turn is often accompanied by hedging: to manage risks, market participants open short positions on the asset itself.
In an unstable market, such actions can further drag the price down, even if the ETF on paper shows growth.
Launch amid a general decline
Funds for Solana and XRP entered the market at a time when the entire crypto industry was already under pressure. Since mid-October, bitcoin began to steadily decline. From a high of $126,000 it fell below $93,000, giving up most of its annual gains.
Against the backdrop of the flagship’s fall, fund dynamics also changed: spot ETF for BTC, which had recently recorded record inflows, began to lose capital en masse.
In general, funds focused on Solana and XRP looked more resilient. Solana in particular held up for a long time, showing steady inflows for several weeks in a row. However, even it eventually faced an outflow of $8.3 million in a week.
It is important to understand that at this time, the market as a whole was moving towards risk reduction: from cryptocurrencies to tech stocks. In such an environment, even a successful new product launch is only a relative achievement. Yes, ETF metrics look solid, but the token prices themselves are falling.
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In essence, these inflows speak not so much of new capital entering, but of the redistribution of already invested funds. Instead of bringing in fresh fiat, investors are shifting positions between different assets within the crypto market.
After the October 10 sell-off, crypto ETP products as a whole lost more than $500 million. At the same time, funds related to Solana and XRP managed to attract $156 million and $73.9 million respectively. Against the backdrop of overall outflows, this looks positive, but still does not mean a full recovery in demand.
ETF for altcoins are indeed expanding their presence, but are doing so not through external inflows, but through the redistribution of attention within an increasingly compressed market.
The effect of inflated expectations
Ahead of the ETF listing, both XRP and Solana showed confident growth. SOL, for example, just a few days before the launch, rose from $177 to the $203–205 range. This movement was accompanied by increased bets on further growth and forecasts promising “$400 and above”.
But on launch day, everything changed abruptly. As soon as BSOL became available on the market, investor sentiment turned the other way: profit-taking began, the market saw an overheated price, and risk appetite weakened. As a result, a drop from $205 to $165 occurred in just a week, despite the fact that fund inflows were among the largest in history for altcoin ETFs.
The scenario for XRP developed similarly. Since September, it was clear that it and Solana would be among the first to list, especially after SEC approval. XRP reacted instantly to every step of the process: from certification on Nasdaq to registration of the final document.
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When XRPC finally went live, Binance News described the market behavior as a classic “sell the news” example. The price fell immediately after the long-awaited event.
Although ETF is by its nature a positive instrument, all this optimism was already priced in before the launch. The listing itself was not the start of growth, but the exit point: it was at this moment that early investors got a liquid opportunity to take profits. The fund works as intended, but the trade that supported the growth ends here.
A new product does not cancel old cycles
First day records in ETF for Solana and XRP are easily misleading. These are full-fledged financial instruments with real market activity, and BSOL and XRPC really had impressive starts, with hundreds of millions in volume, against the backdrop of overall outflows from crypto funds. But evaluating their effect out of context is a mistake.
These products did not appear at the start of a rally, but closer to its end. Over the previous year, the market had already experienced growth and revaluation, and expectations from the ETF launch were priced in long before the tickers appeared. When the funds became available, many investors were already waiting for this moment to reduce risks and take profits.
Additional pressure is also created by the macroeconomic background. While bitcoin falls to $100,000, and ETF see $2.3 billion in outflows, even strong local events cannot neutralize the instability, which especially hits altcoins.
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It’s important to understand that high first-day volumes are not an indicator of capital inflow. It’s often just turnover between market makers, short-term speculation, and arbitrage trades, where ETF are bought and assets are simultaneously hedged through futures or spot. New shares were indeed created, but their volume could not compensate for sales going in other directions.
If ETF products continue to grow and the market stabilizes, is it possible that this will eventually lead to growth of the assets themselves? Or are we dealing with new wrappers for old capital that simply circulates within the market?
It all depends on whether new fiat money enters the industry or everything remains within existing turnover.
The “launch paradox” is not a flaw in the ETF design. It’s a reminder that any innovation works within the market cycle. They do not change the rules of the game, but simply provide the market with a new tool to express the same processes.
