The price of Solana (SOL) has frozen in a narrow range, where neither buyers nor sellers are willing to give in. Over the past day, the token has gained 4.5%, but for the month it is still down 7%. Every rally so far has met selling pressure, but on-chain data and charts indicate that the standoff is nearing its end.
Long-term investors are slowing down sales
According to Glassnode, the Hodler Net Position Change metric, which tracks the balance of buys and sells among long-term holders, remains negative. This means that some investors continue to take profits. However, the intensity of sales has noticeably decreased.
On October 3, long-term holders sold about 11.43 million SOL, and by October 23 this figure had dropped to 4.55 million SOL. This is almost a 60% reduction in selling pressure. Buying has not yet started, but a sharp slowdown in sales often precedes a local bottom.
Short-term traders are leaving the market, while mid-term investors take their place
An analysis of the HODL Waves metric, which shows the distribution of supply by holding time, provides additional confirmation. The share of tokens held by traders from one week to one month fell from 14.88% to 10.87% from October 9 to 23 — a sign that market participants were taking profits on small rebounds.
Meanwhile, the group of holders with a horizon of one to three months increased their share from 15.21% to 18.66%, indicating the emergence of buyers using the decline to accumulate positions.
Simply put, short-term players are leaving, mid-term investors are taking their place, and long-term holders are watching. This balance explains why the SOL price remains in the range and has not fallen below key levels.
If one of these groups changes strategy in the coming days, the balance may be disrupted. Buying by long-term investors (a signal in the green zone) could be a catalyst for growth. But if they start selling again and short-term players return to profit-taking, a decline scenario could emerge.
Symmetrical triangle narrows the range — breakout is near
On the daily chart, Solana has been forming a symmetrical triangle since mid-September. This structure reflects market uncertainty: each new high is lower than the previous one, and the lows are higher, forming a narrowing range.
This phase is coming to an end. A breakout above $211 will signal buyer strength and could trigger a new wave of growth. A move below $174, on the other hand, will confirm that sellers have regained control.
Until then, key levels remain unchanged: $197 is the first resistance, $188 is the nearest support. A close below $188 opens the way to $174, while a move above $197 could trigger a rise to $211 and beyond — about 9% from current levels.
What next?
While the market remains in a fragile equilibrium, both sides are lying low. But charts and on-chain data point to one thing — a major move is not far off.
If Solana breaks the upper boundary of the triangle, the upward momentum could quickly intensify. Otherwise, the price risks returning to the lower zone, where buyers will have to defend the $174 level.
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