The price of Solana has been under pressure for several weeks. Over the past month, the token remains down by about 13%, reflecting the overall weakness of the crypto market. However, a potential reversal structure is forming beneath the surface. A bullish divergence on the chart has already triggered a rebound attempt, and long-term holders, according to the data, are starting to increase their positions in anticipation of a more sustained recovery.
At the same time, another metric is also rising. Historically, its growth has preceded corrections of about 7–10% in the price of Solana. If the scenario repeats, the current rebound may remain volatile and uneven before a sustainable recovery begins. To understand which force will prevail, it is worth first looking at the chart.
Bullish Divergence for Solana Amid Accumulation by Long-Term Holders
The first signal of a possible reversal comes from Solana’s impulse structure.
From January 28 to March 1, the price formed a lower low. At the same time, the relative strength index RSI showed a higher low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent price increases and decreases. When the price falls while RSI rises, a bullish divergence occurs. This signal often appears when selling pressure begins to weaken within a downtrend.
After the divergence formed, Solana attempted a rebound. The price rose by about 10%, but then the momentum weakened again as overall market volatility returned. Importantly, the structure is still intact, as Solana continues to trade above the local low recorded on March 1.
SOL price structure. Source: TradingView
The latest price action is also approaching the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). This indicator helps track short-term momentum changes. In early January, Solana already moved back above the 20-day EMA, after which the price rose by about 17% and reached a local high near $148. If the current rebound can confidently hold above this level, the case for a larger recovery will become stronger.
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On-chain data further supports this scenario.
The Hodler Net Position Change metric shows whether investors holding coins for at least 155 days are accumulating or reducing positions.
Since the divergence appeared on March 1, the indicator has strengthened significantly. The net position of long-term holders increased from 642,906 SOL to 819,114 SOL by March 3. This is an increase of about 27% in just two days.
SOL accumulation by long-term holders. Source: Glassnode
The growth of the indicator suggests that experienced investors are increasing positions despite volatile and uneven market dynamics. However, accumulation alone does not guarantee a smooth recovery. At the same time, another metric is starting to rise, but in the opposite direction.
Growth of Short-Term Holder Metric Has Historically Preceded Corrections
While long-term investors are accumulating positions, short-term traders are approaching an important psychological level. This is reflected in the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric, or NUPL.
NUPL shows whether holders are in a zone of unrealized profit or loss. When the indicator rises, it means losses are shrinking and market participants are approaching breakeven levels.
Since February 23, NUPL for short-term holders of Solana has risen from −0.71 to −0.49. This is a recovery of about 31%.
STH NUPL metric for Solana. Source: Glassnode
Although the indicator is still in the capitulation zone, the reduction in losses may create an incentive to exit positions on any price rebound. History shows how this dynamic affects Solana.
On February 24, when NUPL for short-term holders rose to about −0.50, Solana was trading near $88. Just three days later, the price dropped to $82, a decline of about 7%.
A similar situation occurred earlier in February. On February 6, Solana was around $87 when NUPL for short-term holders rose to −0.70. Over the next six days, the price fell to $78, which is a drop of almost 10%.
NUPL metric history for short-term SOL holders. Source: Glassnode
These historical examples show why the rise in NUPL cannot be ignored. It is not about taking profits. Rather, many speculative participants who entered at higher prices may start selling on any rebound just to cut losses.
This dynamic becomes even more significant when compared with data on supply distribution.
Large SOL Supply Cluster May Increase Selling Pressure
Entry price distribution helps identify levels at which large groups of investors acquired tokens. This data shows a significant cluster in the range from $86.80 to $87.80, that is, in the $86–$88 zone, where about 14.19 million SOL were accumulated.
The entry price reflects the average cost at which investors bought the asset. When the market returns to these levels, participants who entered earlier often start selling just to break even. Given that short-term holders are already approaching the loss reduction zone, this cluster may become a strong area of resistance.
SOL entry price heatmap. Source: Glassnode
If Solana rises to this zone, traders looking to reduce losses may start selling on the rally. Such behavior could reinforce the correction scenario of 7–10% already seen this month. In other words, the supply cluster and the rising NUPL metric for short-term holders point to the same risk.
Nevertheless, the clearest guidance for further movement is still provided by the Solana price chart itself.
The $86–$89 Zone Determines Solana’s Next Move
Currently, Solana is trading near $83, remaining slightly below the key resistance zone identified by the entry price distribution data.
The first barrier is around $86, where the 20-day EMA also passes. A confident hold above $86 will signal strengthening buyers.
However, a more significant level is slightly higher.
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A steady breakout above $89 will show that Solana has overcome the nearest supply cluster without large-scale profit-taking. In this case, the move may continue to $92, then to $96 and potentially to $101. If there is no breakout, it will confirm the historical scenario associated with NUPL dynamics and increase the risk of a correction.
Solana price analysis. Source: TradingView
If Solana loses support near $82, the price may quickly return to $77. Such a move would mean a correction of about 7–10%, which almost matches the pullbacks seen earlier this month.
At the moment, the reversal structure for Solana remains intact. However, as history shows, the path upward is unlikely to be smooth.
