SpaceX shares have become one of the most talked-about stories in the market after a record-breaking debut on Nasdaq. The company quickly approached a $3 trillion valuation, and traders began debating whether the stock would follow Tesla’s path after its IPO: a sharp start, euphoria, and then a painful correction.
Performance of Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) shares after IPO.
The main risk is not only the high valuation. There is a small volume of shares on the market, and the first major unlocks are expected in August. Until then, the price may remain inflated due to the supply shortage, but it is this very shortage that makes future volatility more dangerous.
The IPO Was the Largest in History
SpaceX listed shares on June 12 at $135 per share and raised about $75 billion. This surpassed the record of Saudi Aramco, which raised $25.6 billion in 2019.
After its debut, the company immediately became one of the most valuable American issuers. SPCX shares continued to rise and traded about 56% above the offering price, around $213.95.
According to Kalshi, in over-the-counter trading, SpaceX’s valuation reached $3 trillion. Meanwhile, the company’s revenue for 2025 was $18.7 billion. This gap between business scale and market capitalization became the main point of contention.
The Valuation Became Too Expensive for Part of the Market
Skeptics believe that investors are not paying for current financial results, but for expectations of SpaceX’s future dominance. This story includes Starlink, rocket launches, defense contracts, satellite infrastructure, and the company’s role in the space economy.
But at a valuation of about $3 trillion, the market is already pricing in a very high growth scenario. There is less room for error. Any disappointment in revenue, margins, contracts, or project timelines could trigger a sharp revaluation.
That is why some traders are talking about the risk of a drop. The higher the price rises on limited supply, the stronger the reversal could be when sellers appear in the market.
Comparison to Tesla Became the Main Storyline
Many market participants compared SpaceX’s start to Tesla’s early story. In 2010, Tesla surged after its IPO, then went through strong swings, and only later became one of the decade’s most successful stocks.
But a simple comparison does not work perfectly. Tesla did close its first trading day 40.5% above the $17 offering price and roughly doubled in the first few months. Then the stock quickly lost almost a quarter of its value, and by the end of 2011 was up only 7.3%.
In other words, the story was volatile, but not as linear as sometimes described on social media. For SpaceX, this is an important clarification: a strong correction is possible, but the “repeating Tesla” meme oversimplifies the real picture.
The Bearish Scenario Is Built Around August
Analyst Ted Pillows believes that SPCX could go through a typical overheated debut cycle: a rise of 60–70%, then a drop of about 50%.
Investor Joe Bhakdi also expects pressure to increase starting in August. He points to the thin volume of freely traded shares, forced buying by index funds, and a valuation of about 90 times 2026 annual revenues.
August is important because some restrictions on share sales may end. If early investors, employees, or other holders get the chance to sell, supply on the market will increase. Then the current share shortage could quickly turn into an excess of sell orders.
Low Share Volume Works Both Ways
While there are few sellers, the price can stay above fundamental benchmarks. This explains why some participants are not rushing to bet on a drop even at a high valuation.
Investment advisor Thierry Borjea noted that an expensive stock does not fall just because it seems overvalued. Sellers willing to push the price down are needed for a decline. If there are few shares in circulation and demand remains high, the upward movement can last longer than skeptics expect.
This is the paradox of SpaceX. The same factor that makes the valuation vulnerable is currently supporting the price. The supply shortage can drive the price up, but later intensify the drop if unlocks begin.
ETFs Quickly Started Buying SPCX
Funds have fueled demand. According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, the number of ETFs holding SPCX grew from about four to 120 in just a few days.
This creates an additional flow of buyers. Funds need to include the stock in portfolios, especially if it quickly becomes part of market indices or thematic strategies.
While insiders are restricted from selling and retail investors are not rushing to take profits, buyers may remain stronger than sellers. This market structure can keep the price inflated longer than classic valuation suggests.
Jim Cramer Saw Meme Stock Risk
CNBC’s Jim Cramer said he likes the company itself, but is concerned about how the stock is turning into a meme story. In his words, the market looks as if the price is being driven toward Nvidia’s scale through overnight jumps with almost no sellers.
This is an important point. When a large company’s stock starts trading like a scarce speculative asset, fundamentals temporarily take a back seat.
But such a phase is rarely calm. The more the price depends on sentiment and limited supply, the stronger the reaction to the first signs of sellers emerging.
The Fundamental Story Remains Strong
Despite correction fears, SpaceX remains a unique company. It has commercial launches, satellite internet, government contracts, and a role in the infrastructure of the future space economy.
That is why some investors are willing to pay a premium. They see the company not as an ordinary industrial business, but as a rare asset with the potential to capture large markets in several directions at once.
The problem is the entry price. Even a strong company can be a bad investment if bought at too high a valuation. That is why the debate around SPCX is not about business quality, but about how much future growth the market has already priced in.
What Happens Next?
Until August, SpaceX shares may continue to trade on supply shortages and strong fund interest. This supports the scenario of further growth or at least maintaining a high valuation.
But after the first sales restrictions end, the market will face a real test. If supply rises sharply and buyers cannot absorb it, the correction could be swift.
The main takeaway is simple. SpaceX entered the market as a rare asset with huge demand and a limited number of shares in circulation. This may support the price in the coming months, but a valuation near $3 trillion makes the stock vulnerable to any increase in supply. That is why the debate about “repeating Tesla” will be decided not by memes, but by how many sellers appear after unlocks.
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