The gap between bitcoin and stocks has become one of the main topics for investors: while the stock market is hitting new highs on the wave of interest in artificial intelligence, the largest cryptocurrency is noticeably lagging and trading around $62,000, more than 50% below its October peak.
Bitcoin’s weak performance in 2026 looks especially stark against the backdrop of growth in the technology sector. Shares of companies related to artificial intelligence infrastructure are pushing up indices, including the Nasdaq-100 and the broader NASDAQ market. Investors are more actively choosing fast-growing stories, while digital assets have temporarily taken a back seat.
At the same time, analysts at Hashdex and Charles Schwab believe that such a divergence should not last long. Their conclusions coincide, although their explanations differ: some point to a temporary shift in investment focus, while others see a familiar post-halving cycle phase.
According to analysts at Hashdex and Charles Schwab, the current divergence between bitcoin and stocks may be a temporary phase, not the start of a long-term gap.
How Bitcoin’s Correlation With the Stock Market Is Changing
The correlation between bitcoin and stocks is never constant. It strengthens when investors view all risky assets as one big basket, and weakens when specific crypto market drivers come to the fore: halving, network metrics, institutional products, or regulation.
This correlation is especially influenced by macroeconomic factors:
- Interest rates: the more expensive money is, the more cautious investors become toward volatile assets.
- Inflation: high inflation changes expectations for rates and can increase demand for defensive or alternative assets.
- Fed policy: signals of easing or tightening conditions are quickly reflected in liquidity.
- Global crises: in times of stress, investors often reduce risk and move into more familiar instruments.
- Liquidity: when there is more money in the market, capital more easily flows into stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risky assets.
Capital Has Gone Where the Attention Is Now
Samir Kerbage, chief investment officer at Hashdex, links the weakness of the crypto market not to a deterioration in fundamentals, but to how investments are currently being allocated. In his view, money follows the loudest themes, and in this cycle, the main magnet for capital is artificial intelligence.
Capital follows attention and market stories. Previously, cryptocurrency benefited from this, but now the focus has shifted: artificial intelligence infrastructure, companies preparing for IPOs, macro positioning around rate expectations — that’s where the flows are going.
This shift has diverted some liquidity from digital assets. In such an environment, investors quickly compare instruments by the clarity of their story, yield, and risk:
- Stock of a fast-growing tech company: a share in a business where the investor expects revenue and profit growth; the main risk is a reassessment of expectations.
- Bond: a debt instrument sensitive to rate expectations; risk is changes in yields and the price of the security.
- Derivative financial instrument: a way to hedge risk or leverage a position; risk is complexity and the effect of financial leverage.
- Crypto asset: an asset with high volatility and strong dependence on liquidity; risk is sharp drawdowns and changes in market sentiment.
Against this backdrop, bitcoin is temporarily losing out to more understandable market narratives.
However, Kerbage emphasizes: beyond the price chart, the crypto industry continues to strengthen. Banks, brokers, and payment companies are developing institutional infrastructure, and regulatory clarity in the US has increased and may strengthen further if Congress passes a regulatory clarity law this summer.
Blockchain Activity Is Growing Faster Than Prices
Bitcoin’s subdued price does not hinder the growth of cryptocurrency network usage. According to Hashdex, the volume of stablecoin transactions in the first half of the year has already exceeded the total for all of 2025. Real-world tokenized assets have increased by more than 60% since the beginning of the year, and the number of transactions in the crypto ecosystem in the second quarter reached record levels.
This creates a noticeable gap between market capitalization and real activity on the blockchain. For investors, such a disbalance is important: if the network is being used more actively but prices do not reflect this growth, the market may eventually begin to revalue. In this logic, bitcoin remains not just a speculative asset, but part of a developing financial infrastructure.
A similar logic applies in traditional markets. A stock may lag behind a company’s operating performance for a long time until investors see a new reason for revaluation. A dividend, financial report, change in liquidity, or strong demand from large players can quickly bring back attention. In cryptocurrencies, the role of such triggers is often played by:
- Network metrics: growth in transactions, activity, and network usage.
- Institutional products: funds and other instruments that simplify access for large investors.
- Regulatory decisions: clearer rules can revive interest in digital assets.
Schwab Sees a Familiar Post-Halving Cycle
Jim Ferraoli, director of digital currency research and strategy at Charles Schwab, sees the situation differently. He believes that bitcoin’s prolonged recovery generally fits historical post-halving patterns. Many expected that institutional adoption and spot ETFs would forever change the market’s four-year rhythm, but price behavior so far resembles previous cycles.
According to Ferraoli, in the past, bitcoin needed more than a year after the bear market bottom to sustainably return above the production cost levels of less efficient miners. He currently estimates this benchmark at about $95,000. The average entry price for investors is around $80,000, and this may create selling pressure: some holders will seek to close positions after breaking even.
Financial leverage can also amplify fluctuations. When the market rises, leveraged positions accelerate the upward movement, but during corrections they increase the risk of forced sales. Therefore, even with strong fundamental arguments, bitcoin’s recovery rarely goes in a straight line.
A sharp drop can be triggered by several factors:
- Regulatory risks: tough decisions by authorities can quickly cool demand.
- Mass sales: exits by large holders or forced liquidations increase pressure on the price.
- Macroeconomic shocks: rising rates, market stress, and risk-off moves hit volatile assets.
- Technical failures: infrastructure problems can undermine confidence and intensify sell-offs.
Thanks to numerous market legends, the so-called bitcoin halving cycle has become part of its identity.
Ferraoli does not claim that the four-year cycle is a strict market law. Rather, it has become entrenched in investor behavior and influences expectations. As the asset matures and volatility decreases, the strength of each new cycle may weaken, but the logic of market memory still persists.
Why the Gap May Close
The current picture does not show a collapse of interest in cryptocurrencies, but rather competition for capital. Artificial intelligence, tech stocks, stories like Tesla, exchange-based instruments, and platforms like Coinbase create different points of attraction for investors. Such flows are most influenced by:
- Return expectations: investors go where they see the best growth potential.
- Risk expectations: capital leaves assets if the probability of a drawdown seems too high.
If blockchain activity continues to grow, the regulatory environment becomes clearer, and bitcoin breaks through key resistance levels, the gap between the crypto market and stocks may begin to narrow. For now, the stock market is winning the battle for attention, but the fundamentals of digital assets do not look broken.
How to Choose Between Cryptocurrencies and Stocks
The choice between cryptocurrencies and the stock market depends on the investment horizon, risk tolerance, and how important clear fundamental indicators are to the investor.
- Bitcoin: high volatility, strong dependence on liquidity and market sentiment; advantage — participation in a growing digital infrastructure, risk — sharp drawdowns and regulatory uncertainty.
- Stocks: a share in a business where the investor can look at revenue, profit, dividends, and financial reports; risk — company revaluation, weak results, or pressure on the entire sector.
- Combination of instruments: cryptocurrencies and stocks can be used together for diversification if you predefine allocations, acceptable drawdown, and the role of each asset in the portfolio.
What to Consider as Bitcoin-Related Stocks
These usually include shares of mining companies, crypto market infrastructure companies, and instruments like spot ETFs if the investor gains access through exchange infrastructure. Platforms like Coinbase also fall into this group, as their business is sensitive to activity in the digital asset market.
You can invest in such instruments through regular exchange infrastructure: buy individual stocks, choose a fund, or combine several instruments to avoid depending on a single company. The risk is closer to the stock market, but the result still heavily depends on cryptocurrency dynamics.
The main takeaway from analysts is simple: bitcoin’s weakness against record stock highs may be a temporary phase, not the start of a long-term divergence. For long-term investors, not only the current price matters, but also how quickly network usage is growing, infrastructure is developing, and liquidity is returning to digital assets.
