Bitcoin (BTC) is showing growth of about 11% for April. If the price holds at these levels, it will be the strongest monthly result since April 2025.
Now the focus shifts to May, and here analysts are already more cautious, with increasing expectations of a possible decline.
After 11% Growth in April, Bitcoin May Reverse in May
The April rally also continues the moderate growth of March, when BTC added only about 1.81%. Both of these months of growth came after a prolonged decline.
From October 2025 to February 2026, bitcoin closed the month in the red five times in a row. The most notable drops were in November (−17.67%) and February (−14.94%).
Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass
Now, with the transition to May, this reversal looks even weaker. Analyst Merlijn The Trader on X drew attention to a recurring pattern associated with US midterm election years.
According to his data, in 2014, 2018, and 2022, May became a local peak, after which the market fell by 61%, 65%, and 66% respectively. If the scenario repeats, this could take BTC down to around $30,000.
“Sell in May and go away. It works specifically in midterm election years, every time,” he noted. “Three words. Three cycles. Now it’s the fourth.”
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Data from Coinglass also show that in two of the last three midterm election years, 2018 and 2022, May closed in the red, adding arguments for a decline.
Earlier, Binance Research noted that in such years, bitcoin on average lost about 56%.
On-Chain Signals Strengthen the Bearish Scenario
In addition to seasonal factors, on-chain data also point to market weakness. Analyst Crypto Dan believes that BTC is still in a typical bear cycle. As confirmation, he cites negative funding rates, which indicate weak demand.
According to him, although current levels look attractive from a cycle perspective, there are still not enough signs of a full-fledged reversal to a bull phase.
Data from Glassnode also look weak. The price has faced resistance in the True Market Mean zone and at the cost basis level of short-term holders, which increases overhead pressure and indicates a likelihood of decline in the medium term.
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According to Glassnode , this is typical behavior for a bear market: when the price approaches breakeven levels for the most sensitive participants, sellers begin to outweigh demand, and growth quickly fizzles out.
Meanwhile, the 24-hour moving average of realized profit for short-term holders reached $4 million per hour as BTC approached $80,000. This indicates active profit-taking during the rally, which limits the potential for further growth.
Bitcoin short-term holders’ cost basis. Source: Glassnode
In a recent interview, the head of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher Benjamin Cowen noted that the base scenario for the bottom of the current bear market is October 2026. This implies that downward pressure may still persist.
At the same time, he does not rule out an earlier reversal. According to him, bitcoin could form a bottom as early as May, but for this the market would need a sharp capitulation, and below the levels usually seen in midterm election years.
Meanwhile, institutional players are starting to return. Open interest on CME and assets under management in spot ETFs are gradually showing the first signs of recovery.
In addition, the predominance of short positions leaves room for a short squeeze if demand rises. Binance Research previously noted that after such periods, the market on average added about 54% over the next 12 months, which leaves a chance for recovery after the current weakness.
