On June 16, the Bank of Japan will hold its next interest rate meeting. The cryptocurrency market is cautious about this event: in the previous four cases, after a rate hike, bitcoin lost between 18% and 28%.
However, investors are now concerned not only about the Japanese regulator. On-chain data shows an increase in BTC transfers to exchanges by large holders, and such movements often precede increased pressure on the market.
After the March 19, 2024 decision, BTC fell by about 18%. The rate hike on July 31 of the same year coincided with a drop of about 18.5%.
In January 2025, the decline was even stronger. After the January 24 meeting, bitcoin lost almost 25%. The largest drop followed the December 19, 2025 decision, when BTC fell by about 28% from the local high.
On average, after these four events, bitcoin lost about 22.4%. That is why the June 16 meeting has once again become an important date for traders.
BTC/USD on the weekly chart. Source: TradingView.
But it is not entirely correct to compare these episodes directly. Each time, the market was in different conditions.
The March 2024 correction began after bitcoin hit a new all-time high amid excitement over spot ETFs in the US. In the summer of 2024, the situation was different: BTC had been trading below its peaks for several months, and the markets were further hit by the unwinding of trades with cheap yen, which investors previously borrowed to buy higher-yielding assets.
The declines in January and December 2025 did not come out of nowhere either. They were preceded by strong rallies, after which demand in the spot BTC market and the perpetual futures market began to weaken. This is evident from the 30-day activity data.
Demand for bitcoin in the spot market and the perpetual futures market continues to decline. Source: CryptoQuant.
The connection between the Bank of Japan and bitcoin is most often explained through trades with cheap yen. For a long time, investors borrowed yen at low rates and invested that money in higher-yielding assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.
When the Japanese regulator raises the rate, this scheme becomes less attractive. Some players close positions, and the pressure shifts to riskier assets.
This is exactly what happened in the summer of 2024. The rate hike coincided with one of the largest sell-offs of such positions in recent years. At that time, not only bitcoin fell, but also other global markets.
Now the effect may be weaker. Since March 2024, the Bank of Japan has already raised the rate from -0.1% to 0.75%. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds Japan over the same period increased from 0.63% to 2.68%. That is, the markets have already gone through a significant part of the tightening.
The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds since 2024. Source: TradingEconomics.
The current meeting looks more like a continuation of an already started cycle, rather than a sharp policy reversal. The cost of borrowing in Japan has already increased, so another rate hike is unlikely to be as much of a shock as the first steps after a long period of ultra-loose policy.
Cryptic Trades Analyst also believes that fears about a new wave of yen carry trade unwinding are exaggerated. In his opinion, Japan effectively abandoned the old deflationary model back in 2024, and the topic of cheap yen is no longer as important for markets as it once was.
He wrote:
“The scheme of borrowing yen at low rates for investment in higher-yielding assets effectively lost its significance back in 2024. For markets, this is already noise out of nothing.”
Large BTC Holders Increase Pressure on the Market
While traders are watching the Bank of Japan, on-chain data points to a more immediate source of risk. Large bitcoin holders have begun transferring coins to Binance more actively.
Cryptoanalyst MorenoDV noted that since the beginning of the June decline, more BTC has been flowing to the exchange from wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC and from 1,000 to 10,000 BTC.
Over the past 30 days, the total inflow from large players to Binance has grown to $6.6 billion. Such transfers do not always mean an immediate sale, but the market usually views them with caution. Most often, coins are sent to exchanges before taking profits or reducing positions.
Bitcoin flow from large holders to exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant.
The pressure is visible not only in transfers to exchanges. Short- and long-term whales have already realized more than $2.5 billion in losses during the current decline. This means that some large investors did not wait for a recovery and began to exit positions.
Short-term whales look especially vulnerable. In early May, their positions were in profit for about ten days, but then the market turned down again. Now this group of holders is sitting on about $16 billion in unrealized losses.
Many of these positions are close to breakeven. Therefore, any rebound in BTC could become an opportunity for some investors to exit the market without significant losses. This creates the risk of a new wave of selling during a recovery.
MorenoDV described the current situation as follows:
“Taken together, these indicators resemble a late-stage bear market profile: capitulation by large holders, selling in a weak market, and a nervous group of short-term investors ready to press the button at any moment.”
