Donald Trump stated that the agreement between the US and Iran ‘looks very good,’ and new negotiations could take place as soon as this weekend. The markets reacted immediately: oil went down, American indexes held at record levels, and bitcoin maintained its upward momentum amid a decrease in the geopolitical premium in commodities.
The key shift occurred in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced the opening of the passage for ships during the ceasefire, but the US continues to maintain restrictions against Iranian infrastructure. This is an important detail. The market sees improved supply conditions but does not consider the crisis over.
Against this backdrop, oil fell noticeably. Brent dropped below $90, and WTI settled in the $80–85 range. This is a signal for the market. The risk premium began to quickly exit the price amid expectations of restored flows.
Hormuz Back in the Spotlight
Not long ago, the market was pricing in an escalation scenario. Oil was rising on fears of disruptions, and investors were factoring in the risk of long-term supply failures. Now the focus has shifted. The center is no longer the conflict as a fact, but the likelihood of normalized logistics and trade.
However, risks have not disappeared. Trump made it clear that restrictions against Iran remain until a full deal is reached. This means the current decline in oil is based on expectations, not a final resolution of the problem.
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Stocks Hold Highs
The US stock market is entering this stage in a strong position. S&P 500 and Nasdaq have already updated historical highs, and the current news background has only supported this trend.
The decline in oil plays a key role. Lower energy prices reduce inflation expectations and improve business conditions. This increases demand for stocks, especially in the technology sector. Capital continues to move toward risk.
Bitcoin Remains Resilient
Bitcoin’s behavior is telling. As geopolitical tensions eased, it did not fall along with oil.
The price is holding in the $74–75K range. This indicates a shift in perception. Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like an asset that grows with the market, not just during crises.
This is an important signal for the crypto market. The capital flow remains, despite the weakening of safe-haven demand.
What Exactly Has Changed in Expectations
Trump’s statements set a new tone. The market began to price in a de-escalation scenario and a gradual restoration of supplies.
At the same time, uncertainty remains. Iran and Western countries may assess the terms of the deal differently, and negotiations may drag on. That is why the market reaction remains moderate. There is optimism, but it is still cautious.
Why This Matters for Markets
The connection is simple. If Hormuz is open, oil falls. If oil falls, inflation risks weaken. This creates a more comfortable environment for stocks and the crypto market. Especially for assets sensitive to liquidity.
In the current situation, bitcoin receives double support. On one hand, there is a general increase in risk appetite; on the other, continued interest as an alternative asset.
What’s Next?
The next trigger is the weekend negotiations. If the parties confirm progress toward an agreement, oil may remain under pressure and markets may continue to grow. If negotiations stall, the situation will change quickly. Risk will return to the price, and pressure on stocks and the crypto market will intensify.
For now, the base scenario looks like this. The market is pricing in partial normalization but leaves room for a reversal. This uncertainty will determine asset movements in the coming days.
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