Bitcoin’s rebound on March 4 looked strange when you consider the overall market situation. Oil was surging, insurance companies were revising rates for war risks in shipping, and traders were treating the Strait of Hormuz as a flashpoint where a serious conflict could erupt at any moment. The news backdrop was more reminiscent of the start of a full-blown crisis.
Nevertheless, bitcoin returned again to the area around $70,000, where it has been holding for several weeks. This happened even despite a noticeable drop over the preceding weekend.
There are two reasons for this movement.
The first is related to macroeconomics. When oil shocks begin in the Middle East, markets quickly price in rising energy costs, supply chain problems, and a whole chain of other negative consequences. Joint strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, as well as retaliatory attacks in the Persian Gulf region, caused disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and triggered a strong energy shock.
As tensions around the strait rose, insurance for war risks in shipping became much more expensive and freight rates increased. This quickly pushed up oil and gas prices.
The second reason is related to derivatives. This is not the only factor in the recovery, but it explains why BTC can drop sharply during a shock and then return to its usual price range, even when the market remains nervous. The main influence comes from options. Hedging flows often pull the price toward levels where the most contracts are concentrated.
The macroeconomic shock was the spark. But the options market was the dry tinder already lying around the $70,000 level.
The Shock That Hit Markets First: Oil, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Cost of Fuel Shipping
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the key transport hubs for global oil and gas trade. According to 2024 data, about 20 million barrels of oil passed through it daily. That is about 20% of total global liquid petroleum consumption.
When the situation in this narrow corridor deteriorates, markets instantly reassess the cost of logistics, insurance, and even the feasibility of exporting raw materials.
From February 28 to March 4, the war around Iran caused one of the most serious oil market shocks in recent decades. Strikes and subsequent retaliatory attacks threatened exports from the region, which remains the main center of global oil production.
As traffic through the strait decreased, the cost of maritime shipping soared. Insurance companies began refusing coverage or expanding high-risk zones. Some shipping companies even began rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.
Oil remains the lifeblood of the global economy. Changes in its price are quickly reflected everywhere else. It affects shipping costs, the airline industry, heating expenses, food logistics, and inflation expectations.
So when oil prices spike due to threats to one of the world’s most important shipping routes, investors start asking the same question across all markets: where does the risk flow now?
Why Bitcoin Drops First, Then Rebounds
Bitcoin’s first reaction to a macroeconomic shock often looks like a typical wave of liquidations. And that’s not surprising. BTC trades around the clock, in large volumes, and with fewer restrictions than many other assets. So when traders need to quickly reduce risk, they sell what can be sold fastest.
That’s partly what happened. After the weekend strikes, bitcoin dropped sharply, and from February 28 to March 1, the volume of liquidations reached almost $1 billion.
This is the basic macro scenario. When a shock hits the market, BTC usually falls quickly and noticeably.
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But here comes the main question. Why did bitcoin recover faster than other assets and return to the same price range that has been key for several weeks?
The answer is partly hidden in the options market. That’s where the next part of the story begins.
The $70,000 Zone as the Intersection Point of Options Positions
The options market is usually accompanied by many complex terms and Greek letters, so during macroeconomic shocks it’s often the last thing people think about. But crypto options, especially bitcoin options, have grown so large that they themselves are starting to influence price movement.
Large institutional players hold such big options positions that even small daily price fluctuations force them to constantly hedge risks.
Gamma shows how quickly an option’s sensitivity changes as the price moves. When gamma is high, even small bitcoin moves can force market participants to sharply increase their hedging volume. These trades accelerate price movement and amplify short-term volatility.
The maximum gamma zone for options expiring on March 5 and 6 was around $71,000. At the same time, heightened sensitivity was observed in the range from $70,500 to $73,000. This is where hedging becomes most active.
When the price enters this area, the market can behave like a compressed spring. Any drops and rises happen faster because market participants are forced to adjust their positions more actively.
Strike data shows the same picture. According to CoinGlass, the highest concentration of positions is in the $70,000–$75,000 range. These levels form the main part of the options pressure on the market.
Open interest in bitcoin options on the Deribit exchange by strikes as of March 5, 2026. Source: CoinGlass
At the $70,000 level, open interest is about 9,300 put options and 9,250 call options. That’s about $1.32 billion in notional volume.
At the $75,000 level, open interest reaches about 17,360 call options and 9,410 put options. The total notional volume here is about $1.9 billion.
These figures form a narrow price corridor where a significant portion of market risk is concentrated.
This can be compared to traffic in a city. There are many streets, but traffic jams usually occur in narrow spots where several routes intersect at once. The same happens with options. When a large number of strikes are concentrated in one range, hedging flows start passing through a narrow price zone and amplify price movement within it.
Why March 27 Matters: Expiry Dates Amplify Market Moves
If you look at options expiration dates, one stands out. That’s March 27.
On this date, there are about 111,700 call options and 74,970 put options. The total notional volume is about $13.27 billion.
Open interest in bitcoin options on Deribit by expiration dates as of March 5, 2026. Source: CoinGlass
Total open interest in BTC options also rose. At the end of February, it was about $32 billion, and at the beginning of March it increased to about $36–$37 billion. This amplifies the influence of the options market on price movement during periods of high volatility.
Large expiration dates always concentrate market participant activity. The closer the contract expiration, the more often traders roll positions to later dates, and market makers are forced to manage risks more actively. Because of this, hedging becomes more intense.
Therefore, the effect of “magnetic” price levels usually intensifies as expiration approaches.
The closer the market gets to March 27, the more the strike range around $70,000 and $75,000 starts to act like rails. The price continues to react to news and external events, but again and again bumps into the same zones where the main risk in the options market is concentrated.
How Oil Is Connected to Options
The oil shock created volatility, and the options market largely determined where the price moved during the recovery.
If you look at the period from February 28 to March 4, a fairly clear sequence of events emerges.
First, oil and shipping markets quickly recalculated risks amid worsening conditions around the Strait of Hormuz and export logistics problems.
Then bitcoin came under the first wave of selling. This happened because BTC remains the most liquid asset in the crypto market and trades around the clock. When volatility rises, investors usually reduce risk across all assets, and bitcoin is one of the first to be sold.
When selling pressure eased and the price began to recover, bitcoin again entered the range where a large number of options positions are concentrated. This is the zone between $70,000 and $75,000. Maximum gamma is around $71,000, where hedging sensitivity is highest. When the price returns to this range, movement can accelerate because market participants have to adjust hedges more frequently.
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The fourth factor is related to funding on the futures market. According to CoinGlass, from late February to early March, several strong negative funding rates were recorded. After each such episode, the market shifted to growth.
This pattern usually means the market is overloaded with short positions. When the price starts to rise, traders have to close shorts, adding extra buying pressure. This buying flow can push the price into the strike range faster, and the high gamma zone amplifies movement when the price enters it.
Why the Area Around $70,000 May Persist Until the End of March
The expiration of options totaling $13.27 billion acts as a kind of anchor for the market. Large expiration dates usually attract trading activity to strikes with the highest open interest, because that’s where the main operations for rolling positions and hedging are concentrated. Strike data show that key levels in this range are around $70,000 and $75,000.
At the same time, the macroeconomic situation remains tense. High volatility makes bitcoin a kind of quick-release valve for shedding risk. It often falls first during a shock and then returns to the levels where large derivatives positions are concentrated.
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That’s why the $70,000 level can keep appearing on the chart again and again, even if the news is not directly related to the crypto market. The market returns to this zone simply because that’s where the main risk is currently concentrated.
What to Watch For
To understand whether the story with the range around $70,000 remains relevant, you don’t have to understand the entire options table.
The first thing to watch is the concentration of strikes. If open interest starts to grow at higher levels, the price corridor will gradually shift upward. If the bulk of positions moves lower, the market will start gravitating to new levels.
The second point is the calendar. March 27 will be one of the largest expiration dates in recent times. After such events, the structure of positions in the market often changes, as traders either roll contracts to later dates or completely close risk.
The third is macroeconomic volatility related to oil and shipping. The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has already pushed up oil prices and shipping costs. If tensions persist, bitcoin will likely continue to behave as a liquid asset that drops first during a shock and then returns to zones where derivatives positions and hedging are concentrated.
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The oil shock rattled markets, and bitcoin was the first to react because of its liquidity. But the subsequent recovery happened in the $70,000–$75,000 range, where large options positions are concentrated. High hedging sensitivity and the approaching large expiration at the end of March make price movement in this zone especially sharp and reactive.
