July has historically often been a strong month for bitcoin. There is now another factor at play: there are many short positions clustered above the current price, and their liquidation could push BTC to $75,000. But the growth scenario is not the only one. If support does not hold, the market could still see a move toward $55,000.
June has been tough for bitcoin. BTC lost about 18.5% and risks showing its worst month since mid-2022. The main intrigue now is whether the price will hold the psychologically important zone around $60,000.
BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView.
Bitcoin Could Bounce to $75,000
Analyst Fleh believes July could be a month of recovery for bitcoin. In his view, if the market holds the current zone, the next target could be the area of $75,000.
One of the arguments is related to the Binance liquidation map for the BTC/USDT pair. It shows that above the current price, there is a large short zone. If bitcoin starts to rise, some of these positions may be forcibly closed, strengthening the upward movement.
The most notable liquidity cluster on the monthly chart is located around $67,645. In this zone, according to the map, there is about $247.39 million in liquidation leverage and about $2.26 billion in total potential short liquidations.
Traders often call such zones “liquidity magnets.” When many leveraged positions accumulate around one level, the price often moves there. The reason is simple: liquidations trigger a chain reaction and create additional demand or selling pressure.
Currently, a large liquidity zone is above bitcoin, which is hovering around $60,000.
If BTC returns to $67,600, short sellers will have to close their positions. To do this, they will buy bitcoin from the market. Such a move could strengthen growth and trigger a short squeeze.
“For now, I believe bitcoin is forming a bottom around $60,000. First, I expect a move to $75,000, and only then can we discuss the risk of a new decline,” Fleh wrote on Saturday.
July Is Often a Strong Month for BTC
Statistics are also on the bulls’ side. According to CoinGlass, highlighted by analyst CGT_Trader, the average bitcoin return in July is about 7.6%.
This is especially noticeable compared to June. For bitcoin, this month is usually weaker: the average result is about minus 1.4%.
Bitcoin monthly returns since 2013. Source: CoinGlass / CGT_Trader.
Interestingly, July growth appeared even in bear years. In July 2018, bitcoin rose by 20.96%, and in July 2022 it gained 16.8%.
In recent years, the picture has also remained positive. In July 2024, BTC grew by 2.95%, and in July 2025 it added 8.13%. Therefore, expectations of a green month do not seem accidental.
There are also separate statistics for US midterm election years. In such periods, July on average brought bitcoin about 10.3% growth, making it the strongest month of the year.
Bitcoin monthly returns in US midterm election years. Source: More Crypto Online.
Against the backdrop of June’s weakness, this is especially important. If the market really starts to recover from the sell-off, even the average July growth could return BTC to higher levels.
At a price around $60,000, the usual July return of 7.6% gives a target of about $64,500. If the scenario with a 10.3% increase plays out, the price could approach $66,100.
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A repeat of the 2018 or 2022 rebounds would send bitcoin into the range of $70,000–72,500. And if July turns out to be like 2020, Fleh‘s target around $75,000 no longer seems too far away.
Drop Below the 200-Week SMA Remains a Risk
But the bullish scenario has a weak spot. Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-week simple moving average. It is now around $62,445.
This is an important technical level for the market. If the price does not quickly return above it, pressure may persist into July.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView.
A similar situation already occurred during the 2022 bear market. Then, losing the long-term moving average was not the final point of the decline. BTC continued to fall and only later formed a bottom.
Now, the technical picture also does not look calm. Breaking the “bear flag” increases the risk of a move to $55,000 if buyers cannot quickly return the price above the 200-week SMA.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView.
