One of the largest market makers in the market, Wintermute, warns: the inflow of liquidity into cryptocurrencies has stopped. Now prices are moving not because of new money, but due to the redistribution of existing capital. This reduces growth potential.
According to the Wintermute team, there is indeed more capital in the industry than before, but there are almost no fresh inflows. In such conditions, growth may be short-term and impulses weak.
Currently, the market is seeing internal redistribution of capital, between whales and large players. But a real turn to a bull market, according to Wintermute, is only possible if there is a renewed external inflow of liquidity.
Although many expect an increase in the money supply, this does not guarantee automatic inflows into crypto. On the contrary, recent price movements have made investors more cautious. Now a bearish scenario is looming on the horizon again.
Wintermute plays an important role in the “internal restructuring” of the crypto market. Previously, the company was suspected of deliberately increasing bitcoin sales during the last correction. The main activity of the market maker takes place through Binance, and some of the sharpest price swings in recent weeks are associated with it.
Despite this, Wintermute still has more than $549 million in crypto assets. These reserves are actively used both on centralized exchanges and on decentralized platforms like PancakeSwap and in perpetual futures markets, for example, Aerodrome.
Without new inflows, the market is sustained by the remnants of previous capital
According to Wintermute, the growth of the crypto market has always depended more on liquidity inflows than on the level of real usage. Yes, even during bearish periods, crypto continued to develop: new protocols, tools, and infrastructure appeared. It was these that laid the foundation for the next bull run.
But one fact remains unchanged: without fresh money, there will be no growth. In previous cycles, the main source of liquidity was obvious — new stablecoins issued by centralized issuers.
In the last cycle, the picture changed. In addition to traditional sources, ETF funds and public treasuries entered the market, either through public offerings or through private deals with investors. Venture funds are also becoming more active. However, most of their investments are the redistribution of already existing capital.
See also: Coinbase urges the Ministry of Finance not to distort the essence of the GENIUS law
Even token sales involving external buyers are most often aimed at crypto insiders who still have funds from previous waves.
Perhaps the turnover of existing stablecoins is enough to keep the market alive and even launch short-term rallies. But truly “hot money” is still bypassing crypto, Wintermute emphasizes. There are no visible direct inflows, and interest in ETF and DAT companies is noticeably declining.
Liquidity is returning, but not to crypto
At Wintermute they remind that despite the latest decisions of the Fed, the global economy still operates under a loose monetary policy. This means there is money in the system, and there could be even more.
But new capital is looking for less risky opportunities and finds them in the stock market. There, growth is also promised, but without the volatility and regulatory threats of crypto. Additionally, some liquidity is going into mining company stocks, which investors are increasingly using as a substitute for direct investments in digital assets.
The shift towards stocks is already noticeable even in markets like South Korea, where crypto has traditionally been strong. This means even fewer new inflows into Web3 and DeFi.
