Zcash became one of the growth leaders after news of a ceasefire between the US and Iran. The price rose above $330 and set a new high since the beginning of the year.
But the market is reacting cautiously. The current growth is increasingly compared to the 2021 pattern, when after a series of rebounds the asset entered a prolonged decline.
Rally Intensifies Amid Risk-On
After the ceasefire announcement, investors began returning to more volatile assets. This triggered a local recovery across the market.
ZEC was among the most sensitive assets. In one day, the price rose by more than 30% and reached about $336. The growth also affected other privacy coins. XMR added about 3%, DASH — about 8%, but their movement looked noticeably weaker.
Chart Begins to Mirror 2021 Scenario
Analysts are paying attention to the structure of the current movement. After the peak in 2021, ZEC showed a series of sharp rebounds that ended with a new decline.
The current configuration looks similar. The level around $197 acts as a strong support zone, and above, the price again bumps into the descending trend line. This creates a classic situation. Until resistance is broken, growth remains in question.
Key Zone Is $370
If the momentum continues, the nearest target is around $370. This level coincides with the middle of the correction grid and the resistance line.
This is where the market will get the main signal. A breakout will open space for a stronger move. If the price fails to hold above, the scenario changes. Then the current growth will start to look like a temporary rebound within a downward structure.
Downside Potential Remains High
If growth fails, the market may return to the $197–$200 zone. This means a possible correction of up to 40% from current levels.
This scenario is the main concern. In ZEC’s history, such moves have already occurred after sharp local surges.
Liquidations Increase Risk
An additional factor is the structure of leveraged positions. According to derivatives markets, a significant volume of long positions is concentrated below the current price.
If the price drops below $260, more than $50 million in longs will be at risk. By comparison, the volume of potential short liquidations above current levels is much smaller.
This creates asymmetry. The market more often moves where liquidity is concentrated, and in this case, it is below.
Nearest Levels Already Identified
Special attention is drawn to the $305–$306 zone. A large cluster of leveraged positions is concentrated here. This level could become a local point of attraction. Its breakdown downward could accelerate the movement.
On the other hand, holding above this zone will allow the market to maintain its current structure.
Scenarios Diverge
The market is now at a crossroads. One option is a breakout of resistance and a move into stronger growth. The other is a repeat of the 2021 pattern with a series of rebounds and subsequent decline.
Both scenarios remain in play. But the structure of liquidations and resistances makes the second option more likely at this stage.
What’s Next?
In the short term, ZEC may continue to move up, especially if the market maintains interest in risky assets. But to confirm the trend, a confident breakout of key levels is needed.
If this does not happen, growth will quickly lose momentum. Then the market will return to the scenario of liquidity squeeze and subsequent decline. For now, the current surge looks like a reaction to the news, not the start of a sustainable trend. That is why the market is closely watching the nearest levels.
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