Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) fell nearly 35% from the peak of $225.64, which they reached after the IPO. The decline began soon after what seemed to be strong news—the company was included in the Nasdaq-100 index. Usually, this creates additional demand from index funds, but this time there were more sellers than buyers.
On July 8, the stock closed at $148. This was already the second consecutive trading session below the offering price of $150. Essentially, SpaceX has almost completely lost the gains it made after its high-profile IPO on June 12.
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News Scenario for SPCX
After SpaceX was included in the Nasdaq-100, funds that track the index structure were supposed to buy more of its shares. There was indeed additional demand, but it did not save the stock from falling. The company has few shares in free float, and some investors decided to use the news as a convenient moment to lock in profits.
This scenario is already familiar in the market. At the end of 2024, a similar story happened with Palantir after its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. Then, the company’s shares fell by about 25% over the next few weeks.
SPCX shares have been trading below the IPO price for the second day in a row. Source: TradingView
SpaceX Valuation Near $2 Trillion Under Pressure
Even after the pullback, SpaceX remains one of the most expensive companies on the market. Its market capitalization is around $1.9 trillion. In 2025, the company earned about $18.7 billion in revenue, which is 33% more than the previous year. So the market values SpaceX at almost 100 times its annual revenue.
The main driver of growth is Starlink. The satellite internet business brought in more than $11 billion in 2025—about 61% of all SpaceX revenue. It is Starlink that largely underpins investors’ belief that the company can justify such a high valuation.
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But the weak spots are also visible. SpaceX is still not profitable. In 2025, the company reported a net loss of $4.9 billion, and in the first quarter of 2026 lost another $4.3 billion. Money continues to be spent on developing xAI and the Starship program, so the pressure on cash flow remains high.
At the same time, Wall Street as a whole is not in a hurry to turn against the company. Morgan Stanley, Bernstein, RBC and UBS have initiated coverage of the stock with buy recommendations. MoffettNathanson took a neutral position, while CFRA, on the contrary, advises selling.
Now much depends on Starlink. If this business can quickly increase profits, investors may forgive SpaceX for its huge spending on rockets and AI. If not, the company’s high valuation could once again become the main reason for pressure on the stock.
