October 2025 brings more and more signals of an impending recession in the US. Economists and labor market data warn that almost half the country is already facing signs of a downturn, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore key indicators.
The American economy is sending alarming signals in several areas, from regional slowdowns to declining credit quality and political deadlock. Despite a rosy picture in the headlines, a deeper analysis points to rising risks and growing uncertainty.
Almost half of US states are already in recession
One of the most alarming signals is how exactly the downturn is spreading. According to chief economist Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi, the recession has already reached 22 states and the District of Columbia. There, jobs are being cut and economic growth has nearly stalled.
Another 13 states, as Zandi notes, are barely staying afloat. This situation makes the entire US economy especially vulnerable to any external shocks.
‘There is no formal recession yet, but the risks are extremely high. We are on the edge,’ Zandi said in an interview with MarketWatch.
The classic recession scenario returns
Macroeconomic indicators have also joined the list of alarming signals, as noted by chief economist Swissblock Henrik Zeberg. He pointed out two signs that have preceded every major economic downturn in the US: rising unemployment and falling yields on short-term bonds.
In analysis published on X, Zeberg showed how this scenario is starting to repeat itself. His chart shows that unemployment is rising, while the yield on one-year Treasury bills is falling. Historically, this dynamic has always signaled the transition to the early recession phase.
‘Here is one of my key charts… It clearly shows that a slowdown has begun,’ Zeberg added.
US recession scenario. Source: HenrikZeberg/X
Hiring intentions in the US at crisis level
Signals from the labor market are also increasing concern. According to Global Markets Investor, in September American employers planned only 117,313 new jobs — the lowest figure for this month in the past 14 years.
‘Since the beginning of the year, companies plan to open only 204,939 vacancies. This is the lowest since the financial crisis. And ahead is a new round of layoffs,’ the report says.
The seasonal retail forecast adds to the picture. Analysts at Challenger, Gray & Christmas expect that in the fourth quarter retailers will hire fewer than 500,000 employees, which is 8% less than a year earlier. If the forecast comes true, it will be the weakest seasonal hiring since 2009.
The reason is increasing uncertainty. Businesses are cautious due to inflation, an unstable economy, and automation. If hiring continues to weaken, it will slow wage growth and reduce consumer spending — especially ahead of the all-important holiday season for the economy.
Credit ratings in the US are falling
Americans are increasingly having problems with credit, especially the younger generation. In September, the average FICO score across the country fell to 715 — two points lower than a year earlier. Such declines have not been seen since 2009.
See also: The Fed confirmed that Powell and the board plan two more rate cuts this year
The financial burden is growing. More and more people are missing payments on student and consumer loans, and inflation is only adding to the pressure.
Zoomers are suffering the most. Young people aged 18 to 29. Their average score dropped by three points at once, and sharp drops of 50 points or more have become noticeably more frequent than in other age groups. The reason is the same — student debt. 34% of young Americans have such loans, while nationwide — only 17%.
Shutdown increases pressure on the economy
Another risk is the suspension of the US government. A shutdown could disrupt the publication of key economic data, including labor market and inflation reports. This would create an information vacuum for businesses, consumers, and authorities.
‘Each week of shutdown costs the economy $15 billion in GDP. If it lasts a month, 750,000 government employees will go on forced leave, and another 43,000 people in the private sector will lose their jobs,’ warns analyst Scott Adams.
Against this backdrop, companies, households, and experts are already preparing for turbulence. From regional downturns to falling credit ratings — everything points to the fact that a recession could begin unnoticed. If trends in employment and lending do not change, and authorities do not take decisive action — the situation may only get worse.
What a US recession means for the crypto market
In the initial stage, the consequences are likely to be negative. Rising unemployment and tighter lending conditions may force investors to exit risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
But if history teaches us anything, it’s that this is not the end. Analysts recall the 1970s, when the US experienced the so-called ‘Nixon shock.’ During the crisis, trust in the dollar plummeted, and gold was the winner. Today, bitcoin could play that role.
See also: The 4-year bitcoin cycle is no longer relevant — Arthur Hayes’ opinion
If the downturn forces central banks to start printing money again and cut rates, a weakening dollar could revive interest in decentralized assets. In such a situation, bitcoin will once again be in the spotlight — as protection against devaluation.
But for altcoins, the situation is more complicated. When there is a flight to safety, the market focuses on the main assets. Everything else takes a back seat.
