Bitcoin has entered November — its most profitable month in history. On average over the past 10 years, the price has grown by 42.51%. If this trend repeats, the rate could rise above $160,000 this month.
But it’s not that simple. According to analyst 10x Research Markus Thielen, seasonal charts are important only if you also consider other factors.
“Yes, seasonality plays a big role, but you need to look at it in the context of macroeconomics,” he says.
Currently, the market is expecting a rate cut from the Fed, and the US and China are negotiating a new trade deal. Both events could benefit bitcoin. But at the same time, risks remain: a government shutdown and US tariffs still add uncertainty.
The US and China are making concessions — but without guarantees so far
On Thursday, Donald Trump met with PRC Chairman Xi Jinping. The talks took place in South Korea and, according to Trump, were “amazing.” This is already being called a step towards easing trade tensions between the countries.
Reportedly, Trump agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for several conditions: Beijing promised to fight illegal fentanyl trade, resume purchases of American soybeans, and lift restrictions on rare earth metal exports for a year.
Bitcoin’s monthly returns since 2013. Source: CoinGlass
Trump said he expects to sign a trade agreement with China soon.
It was precisely his threat to impose new tariffs that was previously one of the reasons for the crypto market crash. On October 11, $19 billion was liquidated from the market in a single day, and it has not fully recovered since.
However, not everyone is sure the meeting really changed anything. Georgetown University professor Dennis Wilder believes this is more of a “pause” in the trade war than its end.
The Fed may cut rates and halt policy tightening
Last week, the Federal Reserve cut rates again, now at their lowest level in three years. Traders are already betting on another cut, which could be announced on December 10. CME FedWatch shows the probability of this scenario at 63%.
But it’s not that straightforward, Jerome Powell quickly cooled expectations. According to him, there is no final decision yet.
The market hopes this will lead to bitcoin growth. Historically, cheap loans have always pushed investors toward riskier assets, and crypto is almost always at the top of that list.
See also: Bitcoin may fall by 20–30% — $1.1 billion liquidated in a day
Additionally, the Fed announced that on December 1 it will wind down its quantitative tightening program. This is when the central bank reduces its balance sheet to curb inflation. In essence, the opposite of QE — the very scenario when money is injected into the economy. And that is especially beneficial for crypto.
The reverse process — quantitative easing (QE), in which liquidity is injected into the system, usually contributes to the growth of cryptocurrencies. Part of this money flows into alternative assets, and bitcoin often ends up on that list.
The US shutdown drags on and hinders the crypto market from moving forward
The US government is about to enter its fifth week of shutdown. This could become the longest shutdown in the country’s history. The reason is a deadlock in Congress. Republicans and Democrats still cannot agree on the federal budget.
On Thursday, Donald Trump urged fellow party members to abolish the “filibuster” rule in the Senate. This mechanism allows a small group of senators to block the majority’s decisions. He considers it the main reason for the prolonged crisis.
“THE CHOICE IS CLEAR — USE THE ‘NUCLEAR OPTION’, REMOVE THE FILIBUSTER AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” — Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Ending the shutdown is critically important for the crypto industry. While the government is paralyzed, the SEC cannot give final approval to a number of bitcoin ETFs. The CLARITY Act bill, which should streamline crypto market regulation, is also stalled.
Now the market increasingly talks about a “window of opportunity” before the launch of ETFs, a rate cut, and a potential influx of institutional investors. For crypto, this is a chance to secure the status of a full-fledged asset, especially if the New Year season coincides with a dovish Fed policy. It’s already visible as derivatives markets are coming alive, and activity on platforms like CME and Deribit is growing again.
At the same time, pressure remains. While the SEC is limited due to the shutdown, a number of decisions on ETFs and market structure have been postponed indefinitely. Many analysts believe that until the end of the year, bitcoin will depend not on technical analysis, but on macroeconomics and decisions in Washington.
