On Thursday, bitcoin slipped slightly. The price dropped to about $69.4K, which is about 1.8% below the previous level.
This happened amid rising oil prices. Oil once again climbed above $100 per barrel.
Amid the war in Iran, cryptocurrency has not yet proven itself as a safe haven asset. Investors are reacting to the market almost the same way as to regular risk assets.
In the short term, the situation remains tense. But going forward, things are less clear-cut.
Several factors could impact the market. Federal Reserve policy, a possible increase in money supply due to the war. And another factor: sanctioned countries are increasingly using cryptocurrencies.
Oil Prices Surge Despite Record Reserve Release
On Thursday, Brent oil jumped more than 9% and reached $101.59 per barrel. The reason was a series of attacks on oil infrastructure in the Middle East.
Two tankers were damaged in Iraqi waters, after which Baghdad halted operations at oil ports. Bahrain reported an Iranian attack on fuel storage facilities. Meanwhile, Oman evacuated ships from the key export terminal Mina al-Fahal.
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These events occurred just hours after the International Energy Agency announced the largest strategic reserve release in history. The plan is to release 400M barrels of oil to the market. The United States will provide 172M barrels of that amount.
However, markets barely reacted to these measures.
“The oil release from strategic reserves looks more like a symbolic gesture than a real solution to the problem,” said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.
On the Polymarket platform, the probability that oil will reach $100 by the end of March is now estimated at 82%. That is 40 percentage points higher than previous estimates.
The contract for the $95 level is valued at 94% by the market. Even the scenario of oil rising to $110 and above has a probability of over 60%. At the same time, more than half of market participants expect oil prices to remain above $100 in the near future.
Bitcoin Follows Risk Assets, Not Gold
Since the start of the war in Iran on February 28, bitcoin has behaved almost the same as the stock market. It has not managed to break away from it.
The price has gradually slipped downward. The $74K level that the cryptocurrency touched in the first week of the conflict could not be held.
Now bitcoin is about 47% below its peak. The peak was in October 2025, when the price reached $126K.
The market is heavily influenced by oil. When oil becomes more expensive, expectations of new inflation rise. Because of this, investors begin to doubt that rates will be lowered soon.
If rates remain high, there is less liquidity in the market. And it is the inflow of money that usually helps bitcoin grow.
That is why, for the crypto market, oil movement is now more important than geopolitics itself. As long as the price stays above $80, hopes for a quick easing of Fed policy become weaker.
There is another risk: the Strait of Hormuz. If oil supplies through it are disrupted, transportation costs may rise. This will only increase pressure on the market.
Institutional Investors Continue Accumulating Bitcoin
Despite weak price action, large investors appear to continue buying bitcoin. According to SoSoValue, spot ETFs for bitcoin in the US have recorded net inflows for three days in a row.
On March 9, funds received $167M. On March 10, inflows totaled $250.92M. On March 11, investors added another $115.17M. In total, funds received about $533M over three days. The total net inflow into bitcoin ETFs has already reached $55.9B.
This series of inflows followed significant outflows. On March 5, about $228M was withdrawn from funds, and another $348M on March 6. New purchases may indicate that institutional investors see the market drop amid the war as an entry opportunity.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote on X that ETFs now collectively hold about 1.28M BTC. This makes them the largest bitcoin holder in the world, even despite the price drop of about 50%.
According to him, inflows since the start of the year are almost back in the black. The cumulative net inflow for these ETFs since inception is approaching $56B.
Nevertheless, the overall picture remains mixed. According to SoSoValue, from late January to late February, about $4.5B was withdrawn from bitcoin ETFs. The latest inflows look positive, but have not yet offset previous outflows.
What to Watch
The market is now waiting for fresh US inflation data. On Friday, the core PCE index will be released. An increase of about 0.4% for the month is expected.
If the numbers are confirmed, this could strengthen the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. In that case, rate cuts could be postponed again.
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Oil also plays its part. If the price stays above $80, talk of imminent Fed policy easing may die down again. And without cheap money, it is usually harder for bitcoin to grow.
But in the longer term, the picture may change. History shows that major US wars often end with monetary policy easing. Military spending increases the budget deficit. There is more money in the system.
If this scenario repeats, the current market pressure could be replaced by a liquidity inflow.
There is another factor: sanctions. The conflict increases the interest of such countries in cryptocurrencies.
According to Elliptic, before the strikes, Iran’s central bank held more than $507M in USDT. The Russian stablecoin A7A5 processed transactions totaling $93.3B over the year.
At the same time, most illegal cryptocurrency operations are conducted through stablecoins. The FATF report mentions about 84%.
Even if the conflict ends, this infrastructure will not disappear.
For now, bitcoin is behaving more like a regular risk asset. It is highly dependent on liquidity. The main question now is different: Will this change if the war leads to a new wave of money printing?
