After three weeks of continuous pressure from American investors and record outflows from ETFs, bitcoin may finally change direction. Several key indicators have started to shift simultaneously, which could become a turning point.
The Coinbase Index, reflecting the difference between the price of BTC in the US and on global platforms, has begun to recover. Whales are opening long positions again, funding rates have gone negative, and ETF funds have recorded capital inflows for the first time in a long while. Analysts note that this is the first comprehensive improvement in bitcoin market structure since early November.
US Selling Pressure Sharply Weakens After 22 Days of Decline
Almost all of November, bitcoin was under pressure from American investors. The Coinbase Index, which compares the price of BTC on Coinbase Pro (where mainly US institutional players trade) with global exchanges, remained in negative territory for 22 consecutive days.
Analyst Crypto Goos noted that every time this indicator goes ‘deeply negative’, bitcoin’s price drops, but now the situation has started to change. The pressure is gradually decreasing, and this could be a signal for a reversal.
Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. Source: Coinglass
Analyst Dark Fost, who tracks this metric daily, confirms that it was institutional players, large players, and American whales who sharply reduced their activity after the panic wave peaked on November 21.
‘Sellers in this category have noticeably slowed down. If the trend continues, the market will get a breather,’ he wrote.
Analysts note: the main shift is now happening in positions. For the first time in history, large players are opening long positions in bitcoin more aggressively than retail investors.
Against this backdrop, the Coinbase index is gradually recovering, funding rates are turning negative, and retail is showing caution. According to analysts, such conditions often precede prolonged growth.
‘The upward trend will likely continue. Possibly until the end of the year,’ says analyst Para Muhendisi.
This is echoed by Daan Crypto Trades. He confirms that spot dynamics are improving, and the Coinbase premium continues to return to positive territory. According to him, even small improvements are important now, since the previous selling pressure was excessive.
Macro Factor Turns in Favor of Risk: Dollar Weakens, Yields Fall, ETFs Back in the Green
Amid the general recovery, more analysts are turning their attention to macroeconomics. MV Crypto notes several shifts that could affect the entire market.
‘The probability of a rate cut in a week has risen from 30% to 84% — this is a bullish signal for the entire market. The Dollar Index (DXY) failed to break key resistance, and the yield on ten-year US bonds fell below 4%’, analysts write.
US Dollar Index (DXY). Source: TradingView
Against this backdrop, more participants are inclined to take bullish positions. The macroeconomic environment is becoming favorable for the crypto market.
Additional confidence in this scenario is provided by large movements on the blockchain. For example, SpaceX transferred bitcoin worth $105 million to Coinbase Prime.
After one of the worst months for outflows from bitcoin ETFs, November 25 and 26 finally showed positive values.
Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows. Source: Farside Investors
Historically, bitcoin performs best when ETF inflows and the Coinbase index rise simultaneously — this signals broad interest from American investors, both institutional and retail.
At the same time, analyst Ted remains cautious. He believes that although the Coinbase index is starting to recover, until the trend becomes sustainable, bitcoin’s growth will face selling pressure.
Given the growth of long positions by whales, weakening US selling, falling funding rates, improved macro background, and the return of ETF inflows, analysts believe that bitcoin has real conditions for growth for the first time since early November.
