Dogecoin risks ending the year in the red for the first time in three years

Dogecoin is approaching the end of 2025 with a 26% decline. For a coin that traditionally shows growth in the last months of the year, this is a rare and alarming signal. Previously, the fourth quarter almost always brought profits: +14% in 2022, +44% in 2023, and +176% in 2024. But now the picture has changed — large holders are reducing their positions, and trading volumes are weakening.

Weakening interest from large holders

On-chain analytics data shows: the share of long-term investors in Dogecoin has sharply decreased. If in July, holders who kept the coin for one to two years controlled more than 40% of the supply, now it is only about 22%. Short-term investors, on the other hand, have almost disappeared from the market, indicating a lack of speculative interest.

Against this background, the activity of large wallets has noticeably decreased. Holders of 10 to 100 million Dogecoin have reduced their balances by more than 4 billion coins since October — equivalent to about $730 million at the current rate of $0.17. At the same time, medium players (from 100 million to 1 billion Dogecoin) continue to accumulate, increasing their holdings by 17% over the past month.

The lack of unity between large and medium holders makes the market unstable. Without synchronized buying from large wallets, upward price movement is almost impossible. That is why the current quarter looks weaker than any since 2020, despite positive expectations regarding a possible Dogecoin ETF.

Trading volumes and derivatives increase the pressure

An additional sign of weakness is seen in trading volume data. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, which reflects the inflow of real money into the asset, has broken through the long-term support line for the first time since the beginning of the year. This means that the current rebounds are happening without real demand.

The situation is complemented by an imbalance in futures positions. On the Gate.io platform, the total volume of short positions exceeds longs by more than five times — $776 million versus $152 million. This indicates the dominance of sellers and expectations of further decline.

However, such a concentration of shorts can trigger a short squeeze — if the price rises even by a few percent, some traders will be forced to close positions, which may provoke a short-term spike.

The last line of support

On the weekly chart, Dogecoin is still holding within the ascending channel that began in April 2025. The key support is around $0.17 — it is now determining the fate of the medium-term trend.

If the price consolidates below this level, the next support zone is at $0.15, which will be the first full break of the structure in seven months.

There is still a chance for recovery

Despite the overall weakness, the technical picture does not rule out a short-term rebound. The RSI index shows a hidden bullish divergence: the price forms a higher low, while the RSI updates a lower one. This often indicates a possible upward correction.

If Dogecoin stays above $0.17 and the RSI signal plays out, the growth potential could be about 30%, with a target level of $0.22 — this coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.

An additional catalyst could be the launch of a spot ETF from Bitwise, which, according to rumors, may be approved by the end of November. This event could trigger a short-term surge of interest in Dogecoin and help the coin finish 2025 without serious losses.

What's next?

The scenario of holding above $0.17 remains key. As long as the structure is preserved, Dogecoin may limit the decline and try to recover its position in 2026. But a break of this support will open the way to a drop to $0.15 and below, threatening the multi-year uptrend.

Read more: Morgan Stanley: Bitcoin has entered the 'autumn' phase of the cycle — it's time for investors to reap the harvest