Polymarket is going beyond traditional markets for politics, macroeconomics, and public stocks. The platform has launched a new category of contracts related to private companies and will use Nasdaq Private Market data for markets on startups and pre-IPO companies.
The new product will allow users to trade expectations around capital raising, business valuations, and other corporate events. This is an important step for the private market: there is less information, deals are closed, and real company valuations are often clear only to a narrow circle of investors.
The Private Market Gets a New Layer of Price Expectations
The main idea of the partnership is simple: bring the mechanics of prediction markets to places where transparency is traditionally lacking. In public stocks, the price changes every second, while private companies can remain off the open market for years.
Because of this, it is difficult for investors to understand how the market assesses the chances of a new round, valuation growth, or an approaching IPO. Polymarket wants to close this gap through contracts where participants will directly trade the probabilities of specific events.
Nasdaq Private Market will act as a data and infrastructure provider in this model. The platform already works with the secondary trading of private company shares, so its involvement should add more trust to the product from the financial audience.
The Bet Is on the Unicorn Market
Polymarket specifically points to the growth in the number of ‘unicorns’—private companies valued at $1 billion or more. According to the platform, there are nearly 1,600 such companies worldwide, with a combined value of over $5 trillion.
At the same time, access to these assets remains limited. In most cases, only venture funds, large investors, company employees, or specialized secondary platforms can participate in deals.
Prediction markets do not provide direct ownership of shares, but they allow trading expectations around key events. This can become a separate tool for those who want to assess the private market without access to the actual securities.
Polymarket Goes Deeper Into Financial Analytics
For Polymarket, the new launch means expanding beyond news and political events. The platform is gradually trying to become not just a place for betting on outcomes, but a tool for assessing probabilities in different market segments.
Until now, the main interest in Polymarket was related to elections, Fed decisions, cryptocurrencies, and major news events. Now the company is entering an area where demand may be more professional.
If contracts on private companies gain liquidity, they could be used not only by retail traders but also by analysts, funds, and secondary market participants. For them, such markets could become an additional signal about sentiment around startups.
Nasdaq Strengthens Sector Legitimacy
The partnership with Nasdaq Private Market is important not only because of the data. It shows that prediction markets are gradually being taken more seriously by traditional financial infrastructure.
Until recently, this sector was mainly seen as a niche for betting on elections and news. Now it is beginning to intersect with the private capital market, where venture funds, banks, and institutional investors operate.
For Polymarket, this is a chance to move away from the image of a purely speculative platform. The connection with Nasdaq helps present the product as a price analysis tool, not just a betting market.
Retail Traders Remain the Core of the Market for Now
Despite growing interest from institutions, most of the activity in prediction markets is still generated by retail users. According to Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, they account for about 80% of trading volume.
This makes the sector fast and lively, but also creates limitations. For large investors, market depth, reliable data, legal certainty, and the ability to make large trades without significantly affecting the price are important.
That is why infrastructure development is becoming a key stage. If prediction markets want to reach professional participants, they will have to get closer to financial platforms, not just the crypto community.
Institutional Interest Is Gradually Growing
Wall Street is already starting to pay closer attention to this segment. Bernstein analysts recently noted the first institutional block trade on Kalshi as an important signal for the market.
Block trades are usually conducted by large participants who need to open or close a significant position without causing a major price movement. For prediction markets, this is an important stage of maturity, because such operations show interest not only from retail traders.
If Polymarket can attract similar demand through contracts on private companies, the sector will get a new use case. Especially in a situation where the IPO market remains uneven and startup valuations change faster than public data appears.
What's Next?
The partnership between Polymarket and Nasdaq Private Market could become an important test for the entire prediction market industry. If users start actively trading events around private companies, the sector will get a new niche between the venture market, analytics, and crypto trading.
The main challenge is liquidity and trust in the data. Without sufficient trading volume, such contracts will remain a showcase product. But if the market takes off, it could make private capital more transparent and give investors a new way to assess companies before their IPO.
Read More: Zcash Rose Nearly 10% After SEC Investigation Closed
