Bets on Polymarket related to World Cup football matches brought a combined profit of $24.25 million to three cryptocurrency wallets, analysts from Lookonchain reported.
How Polymarket Bets Work
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where participants buy contracts on the outcome of events. The contract price reflects market expectations and changes under the influence of new data, participant activity, trading volume, and liquidity.
Profit is made if the chosen outcome turns out to be correct and the position is closed in the black. In the case of an incorrect prediction, the participant risks losing the invested funds, so the result depends not only on the chosen event but also on the entry price, position size, and market movement.
Unlike a traditional bookmaker, in such a market, the price is formed by participants’ trades. Topics may include sports, politics, economics, and other public events if the outcome can be verified.
To start trading, you usually need a crypto wallet and cryptocurrency to deposit funds. Before making a trade, it is important to check the service’s availability in your country, registration and identity verification requirements, as well as fees and possible network charges.
Markets close after the outcome of the event is confirmed. If the result is disputed, the rules of the specific market and the order of outcome confirmation apply.
Biggest Wins on Football Contracts
The largest winnings were distributed as follows:
- Mintblade: $9.24 million; five successful bets out of five; among them a large position that Iran would not beat New Zealand.
- Grimdrip: $7.6 million; two successful bets out of two.
- Endlessfate: $7.41 million; six successful contracts out of nine.
Why Analysts Suspected a Connection Between the Wallets
After making a profit, all three wallets sent money to Binance through the same deposit address. Lookonchain experts believe that such an identical withdrawal route may indicate that these wallets are managed by one person.
Then, activity on the blockchain platform stopped: the wallets no longer traded and withdrew the remaining funds.
Other Major Bets on the World Cup
Previously, Lookonchain specialists had already noticed large bets on World Cup match outcomes, but at that time found no direct connection between such deals.
Among other major deals, the following positions stood out:
- Weatherman-Twelve: a $1.81 million bet on Argentina’s defeat.
- Leroy Jenkins: a $5.2 million win on a bet against Turkey beating Australia and a bet on Australia’s spread.
Regulators Increase Pressure on Prediction Markets
Pressure from regulators has increased in two directions at once:
- On June 16, American gaming associations appealed to the US Senate and demanded a ban on sports predictions on blockchain markets.
- Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman announced that the state is filing lawsuits against five cryptocurrency platforms over unlicensed sports betting.
Trading Volume for Football Predictions Reaches Record Levels
The “World Cup Winner” contract on Polymarket has collected more than $2.34 billion in trading volume since its launch last year. For individual contracts, liquidity pools reach up to $350 million.
On the opening days of the tournament and the first matches, daily turnover for individual bets exceeded $100 million. For the prediction market, this became a notable signal: cryptocurrency, public opinion, and economics as a science are increasingly intersecting in the assessment of future events, almost like a stock in finance reflects market participants’ expectations.
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