After the collapse of FTX, the name of Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is once again at the center of speculation. This time, it’s about Hyperliquid—a derivatives trading platform and the issuer of the HYPE token. Amid record volume growth at competitor Aster, the community is discussing the possibility of a ‘death spiral’ for HYPE and even CZ’s alleged involvement in the story.
Tokenomics pressure
According to research by the Maelstrom fund, led by the BitMEX co-founder, Hyperliquid faces a serious problem with future token supply. Starting November 29, a linear vesting of 237.8 million HYPE over two years will begin. This is equivalent to ~$500 million in monthly unlocks.
At the same time, the volume of buybacks, according to analysts, covers only about 17%—around $90 million. This leaves the market with a potential overhang of $410 million monthly. For investors, this signals possible excessive issuance and strong price pressure.
Maelstrom also noted the existence of additional buffers such as DAT tokens (Sonnet), which hold $583 million in HYPE and $305 million in cash, but this is clearly not enough to neutralize the load from the unlocks.
Aster overtakes Hyperliquid, CZ’s role discussed online
The situation is complicated by growing competition. In just two days, Aster showed trading volume more than three times higher than Hyperliquid. This coincided with rumors that Aster might have CZ’s support.
Some market participants believe that Zhao could use his own HYPE reserves to pressure the token, just as his actions once accelerated FTX’s collapse. The community even speculates that CZ is one of the largest HYPE holders—allegedly up to 10% of the supply.
‘Do you really think CZ isn’t capable of crashing HYPE by selling spot and simultaneously opening shorts?’ wrote one user on X.
Reflexive cycle risks
Other analysts, including trader Ignas, believe it’s not about CZ, but the very nature of Hyperliquid’s tokenomics. According to him, there is a reflexive cycle: price drops reduce the value of future airdrops, which decreases incentives to trade on the platform, volumes fall, buybacks shrink—and the price keeps falling.
‘Price drops → airdrop value drops → traders lose incentive → volumes and buyback fees decrease → price drops even more,’ he explained.
Skeptics versus FUD
Nevertheless, not everyone agrees with the grim outlook. Some users note that Hyperliquid remains one of the most profitable platforms in the ecosystem.
According to Artemis, over the past day the exchange generated more fees than Tron, Solana, BNB Chain, Ethereum, and even Bitcoin combined.
FUD critics argue that successful traders will continue to use Hyperliquid, and rumors that CZ is preparing a ‘blow’ only fuel emotions and engagement.
What’s next?
Hyperliquid faces a double challenge: upcoming unlocks are putting pressure on the HYPE price, while Aster’s rapid growth adds competition. The question is whether the platform can withstand this onslaught, or if rumors of a ‘death spiral’ will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Read more: Aster captured half the DEX market with $70 billion in volume
