BTC once again failed to stay above $82,800 and pulled back below $80,000. At the same time, there is no strong panic among buyers yet; over the past week, more than $1.1 billion has flowed into spot BTC —ETF. The market has not seen such inflows since January.
During Thursday’s trading, bitcoin dropped to $79,800 after another unsuccessful attempt to break resistance from above. Despite the pullback, money continues to flow into BTC—ETF.
According to fund data, over the past week, inflows into spot BTC—ETF reached $1.105 billion. This is the largest weekly result since January. On the chart, this still looks more like a regular pullback.
Bitcoin’s Rally Is Losing Steam
On the hourly and four-hour charts, BTC began to show signs of weakening momentum before the decline.
Despite new local price highs, RSI was already showing weaker dynamics. This often happens before the market enters a correction.
BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: TradingView
If BTC holds above the weekly open around $78,500, it will give the market a chance to stabilize. The key support zone is now in the range of $76,000–$78,000. Here, the daily fair value gap (FVG) and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of bitcoin coincide.
If the market starts selling again, BTC may retest this area before another attempt to rally to the recent high of $82,800.
Fair value gap (FVG) refers to an area on the chart where the price previously moved too quickly and the market barely paused. During pullbacks, such areas often act as liquidity zones.
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Crypto trader Jelle noted that a cluster of 200-day moving averages is now acting as resistance for the price. He considers the area around $78,000 to be the first important support. In his opinion, a retest of the 200-day average may support the next wave of growth to higher levels.
At the same time, trader Killa XBT highlighted the range of $76,300–$74,700 as a deeper support zone in case of increased selling. He also noted that buyers are now trying to hold the weekly open around $78,500.
BTC daily chart. Source: X
ETF Inflows Are Rising Again
This week, demand for spot BTC—ETF has noticeably increased. Net inflows reached $1.05 billion, the best weekly result since the third week of January.
If funds maintain positive momentum through the end of Friday, this will be the largest weekly inflow into BTC—ETF in almost four months.
Net inflows into spot BTC-ETF. Source: SoSoValue
At the same time, Swissblock data shows that the bitcoin risk index has dropped almost to zero again, and net inflows into ETF have turned positive again, reaching about 3,000 BTC.
Previously, increases in the risk index often coincided with outflows from ETF and increased selling in the market.
BTC risk index and net inflows into bitcoin ETF. Source: Swissblock/X
In the past, the transition of the index into the low-risk zone often coincided with renewed accumulation of BTC near key support levels.
The Swissblock report also noted:
“This relationship still holds. Even when the risk index rose slightly last week, ETF selling was short-lived, and then accumulation quickly resumed. This suggests that demand from ETFs is still absorbing selling pressure. The current rally remains a movement driven specifically by capital inflows.”
