At Galaxy Digital, they believe that the CLARITY Act could be signed as early as the beginning of August. This scenario is possible if Congress manages to quickly push the bill through the remaining stages before the summer recess and does not drag out the discussion of controversial amendments.
After the vote in the Senate Banking Committee, analysts at Galaxy Research raised the probability of the law passing in 2026 to 75%.
On May 14, the committee supported advancing the CLARITY Act by a vote of 15 to 9. For the crypto market, this was one of the most notable advances of the bill in the Senate during all the discussions. But final passage is still far off.
The bill still needs to go through several more steps. The Senate Banking Committee’s version will first be reconciled with the Agriculture Committee’s version, and only then can the document be brought to a vote in the Senate.
If it is supported there, the next stage will begin: reconciliation with the House of Representatives’ text. Only after that will the final version be sent to Trump.
See Also: Trump Pressures Iran Again, and Tehran Hints at Threat to Global Internet
The timeline is quite tight. Congress has only a few working weeks left before the August recess, and in a midterm election year, major laws usually move more slowly.
Bipartisan Support Gives the Bill a Chance to Move Forward
The vote in the Banking Committee was an important stage for the CLARITY Act. Before this, it was unclear whether the bill could move forward at all without Democratic votes.
In the end, all Republicans in the committee supported the initiative, along with Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks.
But both senators almost immediately made it clear that this does not yet mean support for the document in the main Senate vote.
This is where the bill’s main challenge remains. Committee approval is only the first step. For full passage through the Senate, supporters of the CLARITY Act will still have to seek additional votes among Democrats.
Support from Gallego and Alsobrooks came after discussions of amendments from Senator Cynthia Lummis. During negotiations, some Democrats agreed to certain changes, although in the end only two party members voted to advance the CLARITY Act.
For the crypto industry, this was still an important signal. For the first time, the bill received somewhat noticeable bipartisan support after months of disputes and negotiations.
But the margin of votes remains minimal, and final support for the document in the Senate is still in question.
Ethics Debates Come to the Fore
Further debates around the CLARITY Act now seem likely to focus mainly on ethical restrictions.
Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks want to add rules for officials and their families. The idea is to limit the ability to profit from crypto or promote digital assets while authorities are working on new market regulations.
This topic is being discussed more and more often in the U.S. now, especially after talks about possible conflicts of interest around crypto projects and politics.
Elizabeth Warren, who has long criticized the crypto market, previously opposed the CLARITY Act for this very reason. According to her, the bill does not have proper restrictions related to potential corruption and crypto.
At Galaxy, they believe that the issue of ethics now remains the main obstacle to gaining broader support among Democrats.
Analysts expect that specific amendments on this topic may appear during the next stage of discussions in the Senate.
At the same time, debates continue around other parts of the bill, including regulation of DeFi and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
Some lawmakers fear that some initiatives may overly restrict control over DeFi protocols, validators, and other blockchain infrastructure.
See Also: Stablecoins Increasingly Used as Global Payment System
At Galaxy, they believe these issues may still be reconsidered during negotiations. But even a limited compromise on ethical requirements could already help the bill move forward.
Timing Becomes the Main Problem
According to Galaxy, further progress of the CLARITY Act will require a very tight work schedule in the Senate.
Analysts believe that as early as the beginning of June, the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee should start merging their versions of the document. Moreover, this work will have to be completed as quickly as possible.
After that, full discussion of the CLARITY Act in the Senate should start around mid-June, and the final vote should ideally be held before the end of the month.
Then July will be left for negotiations between the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as for final reconciliation of the document.
If there are no serious delays, Donald Trump could sign the law as early as the week of August 3. The White House, meanwhile, would like to go through this process even faster.
Earlier, the executive director of the President’s Council on Digital Assets, Patrick Witt, said that the administration hopes to pass the CLARITY Act through Congress by July 4. But for this, both chambers would have to work at an even faster pace.
Galaxy’s forecast looks more realistic, but even this scenario remains quite tense.
Any delays in reconciling versions of the bill, postponements of votes, or prolonged negotiations between chambers could seriously push back the timeline.
According to Galaxy, just discussing the bill in the Senate could take about a week.
Additional debates around ethical restrictions, DeFi, stablecoin yields, or anti-money laundering rules could also stretch the process almost to Congress’s August recess.
