Norwegian authorities have launched an investigation after users of the Polymarket platform placed large, profitable bets on Maria Corina Machado’s victory even before the official announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate. It is assumed that information about the committee’s decision may have leaked in advance.
Suspicious trades before the results announcement
A few hours before the award was announced, three accounts on Polymarket placed large bets on Machado’s victory. Until that moment, the market leaders were Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Alexei Navalny, Donald Trump, and Pope Leo XIV. But soon after these trades, the chances of the Venezuelan activist began to rise rapidly.
When the committee announced the winner’s name on the morning of October 11, traders who managed to bet on Machado earned about $90,000 in profit. Official Nobel Institute representative Erik Aasheim confirmed that the organization is already looking into the situation:
“We are investigating this case,” he told the Norwegian publication The Strait News.
One trader earned over $50,000
According to Protos, one Polymarket participant, registered under number 6741, specifically created a new account to bet on Machado. His profit amounted to about $53,500.
Analysts noted that he also placed small bets on other candidates — from Navalnaya to Greta Thunberg and Julian Assange, which may have been an attempt to conceal his main interest.
As journalists found out, the decision to award the prize was made on October 6, a few days before the ceremony. Machado was notified of her victory literally a few minutes after the press conference in Oslo.
Possible information leak and vulnerability of prediction markets
Suspicions of insider trading intensified because the circle of people who knew about the decision in advance was extremely narrow — only members of the Nobel committee and technical staff. The sharp rise in Machado’s winning probability on the platform the evening before the ceremony caused concern among analysts and journalists.
This is not the first time prediction markets have become the subject of investigations. Previously, Polymarket users also came under suspicion due to trades suggesting access to confidential information — from corporate decisions to political events.
New investments increased attention to Polymarket
The incident occurred shortly after Polymarket announced it had raised $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This investment allowed the platform to return to the US market after receiving approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Now, however, the Nobel Prize story may become a test for the entire industry. Experts warn: prediction markets are a powerful tool for collective analysis, but they inevitably face risks when information is limited and valuable.
What happens next?
If the investigation confirms a leak, the consequences could be serious. The Norwegian committee may tighten internal data confidentiality rules, and regulators may require new transparency measures from such platforms.
Nevertheless, analysts believe that this case will not undermine trust in the very format of prediction markets.
“The technology has nothing to do with it. The problem is always with people — if information is worth money, someone will try to profit from it,” noted one expert on decentralized markets.
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