Bitcoin entered the new week at around $77,000, losing about 4% over the previous seven days. Market participants are awaiting the Fed’s decision, and analysts believe that Wednesday could be the moment when the price breaks out of the current range or, conversely, triggers a sharp ‘whipsaw’ in both directions.
For the market, Bitcoin remains the main benchmark. Simply put, it is a digital currency and at the same time a market asset: it can be transferred directly between network participants, and its price is usually quoted in US dollars.
- Blockchain: stores transaction history.
- Encryption: protects signatures and access to coins.
- Peer-to-peer network: transmits data without a central intermediary.
- Open-source software: the model described by Satoshi Nakamoto.
Satoshi Nakamoto is the pseudonym of Bitcoin’s creator. Unlike PayPal or a classic bank transaction, such a payment system transfers money without a central intermediary. In the technological context, Hashcash, public-key cryptosystems, computer science, and early industry institutions like the Bitcoin Foundation are often mentioned.
Transactions are confirmed by miners: they collect operations into blocks, perform calculations, and receive rewards. This way, the network agrees on a single transfer history, protects itself from counterfeiting, and issues new coins. The maximum supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins, and the remaining amount will appear through mining until this limit is reached.
For investors, the question of investing in Bitcoin is related not only to the chart but also to trust in the network architecture. BTC can be stored in wallets: hardware wallets are usually chosen for security, software and mobile wallets for convenience, and paper wallets as an offline option, where it is especially important not to lose the keys.
You can buy or sell Bitcoin through crypto exchanges, exchangers, and P2P platforms. Usually, the user chooses a platform, pays for the purchase or places an order, and then transfers BTC to their wallet; when selling, the process goes in the opposite direction.
Rufat Abyasov: The Market Expects Not a Trend, but a ‘Whipsaw’
GBIG HOLDINGS founder Rufat Abyasov draws attention to the sharp reassessment of expectations for the Fed rate.
- End of August: about 37%.
- September 2: about 70%.
- September 8: above 60%.
After fresh employment and inflation data, market participants began to price in an even more hawkish scenario.
Bitcoin reacted quickly to these expectations. On September 2, the rate dropped to $76,200, but after comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller about a possible pause, it rebounded almost 5% to $81,700. Later, employment statistics again cooled buyers, and the price went down.
On September 11, US inflation data for August was released. Consumer prices rose by 0.4% for the month after 0.1% in July, and annual inflation reached 3.4%. The probability of a Fed rate hike rose to 87–90%, the dollar strengthened, and the market began preparing for a tougher decision at the September 16 meeting.
US indices S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones initially fell on the statistics but managed to close in positive territory. Major IT companies provided support: Oracle and Dell hit new highs on news of new AI contracts worth more than $30 billion.
On the same day, Bitcoin showed a sharp ‘helicopter’ dynamic. First, the price bounced off the $76,000 zone, preliminarily triggering stop-losses for long position holders, and then rose to $79,000.
Ethereum looked slightly stronger than Bitcoin. Over the week, the ETH/BTC pair rose to about 0.0316. On a monthly horizon, the gap is more noticeable: Ethereum added about 30%, while Bitcoin grew by about 22%.
About $987 million flowed into spot bitcoin ETFs over the week. This is already the third consecutive week of inflows, and in total, the funds received $3.8 billion over three weeks. September 3 was the best day in nine months: $730 million came into products in one day. But an important detail remains: since the beginning of 2026, the overall flow into bitcoin ETFs is still negative and amounts to about minus $1 billion. August and early September are more about returning previously withdrawn capital than attracting new money.
In terms of liquidity inflow, the picture looked restrained:
- The capitalization of stablecoins grew by only 0.5% over the week, to $310 billion.
- Almost no fresh money entered the system.
- Standard Chartered and CryptoQuant believe that the growth of the crypto market in August and September was mainly due to the closing of short positions, not new purchases.
- On September 2, retail traders on OKX went net short right before the reversal.
Among altcoins, Zcash stood out. The ZEC coin gained almost 50% in a week and entered the top 10 cryptocurrencies for the first time since 2016. At the same time, Abyasov emphasizes: this does not look like a general rally of privacy coins, because Monero lost 2.8% over the same period.
Why Wednesday Could Be the Key Day
The main event of the week is the Fed meeting on September 16. According to Rufat Abyasov, this is the first meeting in three years where a rate hike is being seriously discussed. The current range is 3.50–3.75%, and the last rate cut was in December 2025.
August inflation, published on September 11, did not add optimism to the market. Christopher Waller said directly that with a ‘hot’ report, he would consider a hike. Another intrigue is the press conference of Kevin Warsh, who in June canceled forward guidance, i.e., monetary policy benchmarks. Therefore, the market may not receive clear signals about the future rate trajectory.
Another political factor is the Senate vote on September 15 to end debate around the CLARITY Act. Sixty votes are required for passage. Republicans have 53, so at least seven Democratic votes are needed.
On September 18, options on IBIT worth about $5 billion will expire in the US. This could increase price volatility at the time. On September 19, a bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment of about plus 2% is expected. The increase in difficulty is due to miners connecting additional capacity as the price of the first cryptocurrency rises, hoping for continued growth.
Technical Picture for Bitcoin and Ethereum
For bitcoin, the lower boundary of the important zone is in the $76–77,000 range. Here, the 50-day EMA is around $77,300, and the average purchase price of retail investors is about $76,400. As long as these levels hold, the movement looks more like a correction than a full-fledged trend reversal. If the price breaks support downward, the next target could be the $73–74,000 zone, where the MA200 is on the four-hour chart.
On a rebound, the first serious resistance is the 50-day SMA at about $80,300. Above is the supply zone of $81–86,000, where about 1.05 million coins of long-term holders are concentrated. If bitcoin consolidates above, the price could open up space to $94–96,000.
The picture remains mixed. On September 9, a ‘golden cross’ appeared on the daily chart: the 50-day average crossed the 200-day. But at the same time, the MACD turned down, and the RSI around 60 shows a bearish divergence.
Ethereum’s weekly close was above $2,438. This is the 0.618 Fibonacci level from the August 2025 peak. If ETH holds this level, the probability of moving to $2,920 increases. Losing the level opens the way to $2,220. Intermediate resistance is around $2,550, where the 50-day average is on the weekly chart.
The base scenario for the week for bitcoin is a wide sideways range in the $76–82,000 band with a sharp impulse on Wednesday evening. Abyasov does not recommend betting on the direction of this move in advance without strict stop-losses. Implied volatility has already risen from 37 to 40 points, and the risk premium is largely priced in. After the Fed decision, the opposite effect is possible: volatility may sharply contract regardless of which way the price moves first.
Notably, prediction markets give an 89% probability that in September bitcoin will rise above $80,000, and an 82% probability that it will fall below $77,500.
High volatility is driven by several factors: expectations for the Fed rate, strong reaction to macro statistics, options expiration, ETF flow movements, and stop-loss triggers in the sideways range.
According to the analyst, this is not a trending market, but a ‘whipsaw’: sharp moves in both directions can knock out participants, especially in a sideways range. In such a situation, it is wiser to hedge speculative positions as much as possible and wait for a clearer direction.
What Else Investors Should Consider
September is historically considered a weak month for bitcoin. The average return over 13 years is in the range of minus 3% to minus 4%, with eight September declines versus five months of growth. However, the last three Septembers in a row closed in positive territory — for the first time in the entire sample. Seasonality is useful as a guide, but it does not guarantee a repeat scenario.
In the 2022 cycle, bitcoin lost 77%, while gold fell only 3%. At that time, the ‘digital gold’ idea did not work. If the Fed really returns to raising rates due to an energy shock, the market will test this thesis again. In such periods, the correlation of cryptocurrencies with risky assets usually increases, not decreases.
The main risks for a Bitcoin investor are sharp drawdowns, regulatory pressure, storage security issues, and criticism of mining energy consumption.
A separate factor is Michael Saylor’s Strategy. The company holds 845,000 bitcoins, but last week did not buy a single coin. Instead, it directed $176 million to buy back its own preferred shares. Strategy’s capitalization fell below the value of the bitcoins on its balance sheet. While the company trades below its reserve value, it is difficult for it to increase the number of bitcoins per share through the issuance of securities, and there is a temptation to sell the underlying asset to buy back shares.
In the summer, the board of directors already approved a monetization program that allows the sale of up to 20,800 BTC. So far, this is an isolated case, but the treasury crypto company model is being seriously tested for the first time.
At the same time, Rufat Abyasov believes that the new four-year Bitcoin cycle associated with the halving is already near. If we focus on the previous four cycles, its start could fall in October-November. In the absence of global shocks, this could open a new stage of long-term crypto market growth for one to two years. Looking ahead to 2030, the key variables remain the same: halving cycles, Fed policy, ETF demand, regulation, and trust in the network.
Alexander Kraĭko: Ethereum Looks Stronger Than Bitcoin
Lead analyst at crypto broker Cifra Markets Alexander Kraĭko notes that last week bitcoin continued to consolidate in the $76,500–80,000 range below the 50-week average. In his opinion, the denouement may come as early as the week beginning September 14.
The key reason is the same — the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday. The market currently estimates the probability of a hike at about 70%. Crowd sentiment remains negative, but the charts, according to Kraĭko, look more bullish. Therefore, he maintains his forecast for a ‘window of strength’ for the crypto market until early November and expects continued growth.
The first scenario assumes that before the Fed meeting, bitcoin may look weak because participants fear a rate hike. If a hike is actually announced, a quick drawdown with subsequent recovery is possible. The $74,300 level is highlighted by the analyst as a zone for accumulating bitcoin.
Ethereum, according to Kraĭko, is behaving noticeably stronger. Over the past week, ETH rose nearly 7% relative to bitcoin. The chart looks more powerful: every positive for the crypto market is reflected in a more active rise in ether. Therefore, if the market continues to rise, the main favorites could be Ethereum and altcoins, not Bitcoin.
Previously, entry points for ETH were around $2,340, but after strong growth on September 11 on US inflation data, accumulation levels can be raised. Kraĭko considers the first part of the position on a retest of the $2,500 zone, another part — in case of a deeper correction — around $2,420. Among altcoins, he has a positive outlook on Ethereum ecosystem projects and assets that generate income.
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