In 2026, bitcoin found itself at the center of one of the harshest downturns in the crypto market since the FTX collapse: after an autumn high of around $126,000, it had lost more than 45–50% of its value by June. Russian experts attribute the drop not only to market volatility, but also to geopolitical anxiety, sanctions, reduced liquidity, and overheated investor expectations.
The crisis in the digital asset market became the central topic at the press conference “Crypto Catastrophe – 2026,” held at the press center of the National News Service information agency. Participants discussed why cryptocurrency is once again experiencing a painful correction, whether it can help businesses with payments under sanctions, and which mistakes most often lead private investors to losses.
By mid-2026, almost all market segments felt the pressure. Many popular altcoins fell harder than bitcoin—by 40–70%, and the total capitalization of the crypto market, according to participants, was cut almost in half. For investors worldwide, this resulted in multibillion-dollar losses.
Yaroslav Kabakov, Strategy Director at the investment company FINAM, reminded that sharp price movements are not unusual for high-risk assets. According to him, bitcoin dropped from a historic peak of about $125,000 to the current range of $64,000–$67,000.
We saw a strong surge in crypto assets amid legislative changes, when U.S. President Donald Trump gave the market hope by allowing the launch of ETF funds. An ETF is an exchange-traded fund whose shares are traded on the exchange and reflect a share in an asset portfolio. But such volatility is not unique to bitcoin. Now even basic assets can gain 20–30% in a day and then fall just as quickly. Gold, for example, soared from $2,000 to $5,000 and is now correcting.
Why Bitcoin Fell: Liquidity, Leverage, and Crowd Disappointment
Alexey Mokrov, founder of CryptoBotPro LLC, believes the market collapses when several pillars fall at once:
- expectations;
- liquidity;
- leveraged positions;
- institutional demand;
- the mass investor’s belief in endless growth.
This is exactly the combination the market saw in early June, according to him.
According to Reuters, bitcoin dropped to $64,000—its lowest since late February 2026. CoinDesk reported that the price briefly dipped even below $62,000. Now bitcoin continues to fluctuate in this corridor. In one day, the market saw about $1.5 billion in liquidated leveraged positions. When leverage is closed automatically, the drop stops being a normal price movement and turns into a chain reaction.
A further blow was a record outflow from spot bitcoin ETFs: about $2.8 billion over nine consecutive trading days. Alexey Mokrov called this direct pressure on the market. Another notable signal was Michael Saylor’s Strategy company selling 32 bitcoins for about $2.5 million. For the largest corporate holder of cryptocurrency, this was the first such deal since 2022; previously, the company mainly bought the asset.
Amid the decline, investors are once again discussing the fundamental nature of digital assets. Bitcoin was conceived as a payment system and peer-to-peer network, where the blockchain records the movement of funds without a traditional intermediary. Each transaction enters the network, then miners bundle operations into blocks, verify them, and add them to the chain after consensus is reached. The blockchain stores records sequentially: changing an old block without network consent is nearly impossible, since it would require recalculating the entire subsequent chain. In the English-speaking world, terms like Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, and Price are constantly associated with bitcoin, and the idea itself traces back to documents linked to Satoshi Nakamoto. Technically, open-source software, encryption, computer science, and a public-key cryptosystem are important here, but for most market participants, it all boils down to something simpler: money is invested, the price falls, and the risk turned out higher than expected.
How Bitcoin Works: Mining, Storage, and Buying
Bitcoin is believed to have been created by Satoshi Nakamoto: under this name, the whitepaper was published, after which the network was launched. Bitcoin issuance is limited by protocol in advance: a maximum of 21 million coins can exist.
Mining is the process in which network participants confirm transactions and add new blocks to the blockchain. This requires specialized devices and stable access to electricity. Miners keep the network running, help it reach consensus, and receive rewards for found blocks.
Bitcoins can be stored in various ways. Hardware wallets are usually chosen for more secure storage because private keys remain on a separate device. Software wallets are more convenient for quick operations but depend more on the security of the computer or smartphone. Paper wallets allow you to store keys offline, but they are easy to lose or damage.
You can buy bitcoin through crypto exchanges, exchangers, or P2P platforms. Usually, the process is simple: the user selects a platform, passes the necessary verification, pays for the purchase, and transfers the coins to their wallet if they do not want to leave them with an intermediary.
Crypto and Banks: Sanctions Accelerate Market Maturity
A separate part of the discussion focused on whether legalizing cryptocurrency in Russia could reduce sanctions pressure. Alexey Mokrov believes that for small transfers of a few thousand dollars, cryptocurrency can indeed help bypass restrictions. But for large international settlements, AML and KYC procedures are still needed—client verification, risk assessment, source of funds control, and anti-money laundering measures.
Sanctions, in my view, have been one of the factors in the maturation of the Russian crypto market. Previously, crypto was often seen as a speculative toy. Today, business increasingly sees it as a tool for international settlements and a backup financial circuit. That is why regulation of digital assets and the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign economic activity are being discussed in Russia. Sanctions have unexpectedly made crypto less speculative and more practical.
Yaroslav Kabakov noted that everyday payment with cryptocurrency is technically quite feasible. If custodial wallets appear, a bank will be able to instantly convert a crypto asset into rubles—much like rubles were previously converted into dollars or euros for card payments abroad.
Will you be able to go to a cafe and pay with crypto? In my opinion, this is quite easy to do. As soon as custodial wallets appear, the scheme will be similar to paying with a yuan card or a Visa card abroad. Technically, a bank can instantly convert cryptocurrency into rubles. Legislatively, this also does not seem like a difficult task. The other question is—why? There are already enough problems, and the conversion cost is likely to be unattractive.
Kabakov recalled that a number of banks had proposed creating their own payment infrastructure outside the National Payment Card System, but the Central Bank refused this week. In the expert’s opinion, such an initiative could have developed various fintech projects.
The FINAM expert also suggested that foreign economic payments for companies may be more convenient and cheaper through Russian banks, as competition has already reduced fees. Among possible instruments, he mentioned promissory notes, digital financial assets, and other solutions.
Alexey Mokrov emphasized that cryptocurrency has long ceased to be an experiment for a narrow circle of enthusiasts. The market scale as of June 2026 looked like this:
- global crypto market capitalization—$2.2–2.5 trillion, roughly at the level of Italy’s or Canada’s GDP;
- bitcoin capitalization—about $1.2–1.3 trillion;
- stablecoin capitalization—over $300 billion;
- annual transaction volume—tens of trillions of dollars.
Against this backdrop, traditional financial services and crypto infrastructure are increasingly competing in the same environment. For users, a bank transaction, a PayPal transfer, buying an asset on Coinbase, or settling in United States dollars may be seen as different ways to manage funds, though the rules, risks, and level of protection in each case differ greatly. Cryptocurrency does not eliminate banks here, but forces them to change faster.
Yaroslav Kabakov, however, drew attention to another side of the market: in Russia, it is impossible even to roughly estimate how many crypto wallets are open and what amounts are held in them. Access to the crypto market has become extremely simple: anyone can become an investor in a few clicks and assemble a portfolio on their own.
Traditional banks have no future if they limit themselves to deposits and loans. In this form, a bank turns into an outsider. But banks have weak expertise in the platform economy. There is the example of Sber, which spent serious money on the unsuccessful “MegaMarket” project, which never became a leader among marketplaces. Meanwhile, the marketplaces themselves, by creating their own banks, are quickly growing their audience.
Kabakov noted that the recent conflict between the largest banks and marketplaces, when banks demanded to limit the preferences of in-platform banks for clients, has essentially run its course. VTB is now building relations with Wildberries, and Sber was negotiating to buy a stake in Ozon owned by AFK Sistema.
I would not call this a friendship between banks and marketplaces. Rather, it is a struggle for the client. Previously, the bank was responsible for the money, and the marketplace—for purchases. Now the marketplace wants to become a bank, and the bank—a marketplace. The bank is already competing not only with another bank, but with everyone vying for a spot on the client’s smartphone screen.
According to Kabakov, large platforms are increasingly launching:
- financial services;
- installment plans;
- loans;
- debit cards;
- loyalty programs;
- investment products.
Deposits, Rates, and Pressure on the Stock Market
Press conference participants also touched on the proposal of Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, which was discussed in the State Duma. The politician stated that citizens’ bank accounts hold 67 trillion rubles, and enterprises—63 trillion rubles, but these funds, in his words, do not work for the economy and “just sit and enrich bankers.”
Yaroslav Kabakov called such statements sabotage and an information ploy forming a negative agenda. Alexey Mokrov agreed with him.
As far as I know, representatives of the relevant State Duma committee have already publicly criticized this idea. Citizens’ deposits are not money lying in a safe. They are a resource on which the banking system operates. They go into loans, business, mortgages. To withdraw deposits is like putting out a fire with gasoline: there will not be more money in the budget, and trust in the economy will drop sharply.
Kabakov also drew attention to the decline of the Russian stock market. The MOEX index has dropped significantly: institutional investors are selling, while retail investors are buying. Among the reasons for the sell-off, he cited the risk of blocked assets being realized and monetary policy. The Central Bank rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points instead of the 0.5 percentage points expected by the market.
All this does not add optimism and reduces liquidity. Business is under pressure, and the key rate cut partially frees up liquidity on the credit burden. But there is currently no prospect of seeing the rate below 13% by year-end. The yields on long-term bonds show that the market is not confident of a reduction even next year. If budget spending continues, we could even see a rate hike by the end of 2026.
According to Kabakov, investor expectations are also pressured by geopolitical risks, rising overall tension, and the tough policies of the world’s largest central banks. Combined, these factors could trigger a man-made crisis.
Fraudsters Are Faster, but Investors Are Not Always More Careful
The conversation about investment security proved no less heated. Alexey Mokrov admitted that asset protection has improved, but fraudsters have also adapted. They go where there is less scrutiny and more emotion: to fake platforms, pseudo-curators, dubious crypto wallets, and schemes promising quick recovery of losses.
The Bank of Russia reported that in January, February, and March 2026, banks prevented nearly 16.8 million fraudulent transactions and stopped the theft of 1.8 trillion rubles. But for transactions that clients had already reported to banks, 7.4 billion rubles were still stolen. In the first quarter of 2026, the regulator identified 1,400 illegal financial market participants posing as pseudo-investment projects.
A fraudster does not only target greedy people. He targets those who are scared and uneducated—those who want to quickly recover or make money fast. The main red flag: if someone offers help but asks you to transfer money to an individual’s card or an unverified account, you need to stop. Panic always feeds fraudsters.
Yaroslav Kabakov warned: if fraudsters have reached crypto wallets, legal protection in this area is still extremely weak. In his opinion, crypto wallets should be custodial, and the Russian market is in for a major overhaul.
Legislation in Russia is changing. In the future, crypto assets should be legalized, counted, and profits should be taxed. I think the Russian crypto market will resemble the Belarusian one. But the gray zone will remain anyway. In a deglobalizing world, where everyone is in conflict with each other, fighting cybercriminals and recovering funds has become much more complicated and is almost unregulated.
Kabakov believes that a separate regulatory “sandbox,” which the Central Bank has decided on, may be useful: in a limited format, it will allow the protection of crypto investors. But the very function of payments and transfers in crypto assets is global in nature, so it is difficult to fully enclose it within local rules.
Alexey Mokrov separately warned against blind faith in opinion leaders. According to him, an inexperienced investor often buys not an asset, but someone else’s confidence. He does not understand the market but trusts the one who speaks the loudest.
Influencers broadcast their popular opinions to the masses and drive people into projects with controlled liquidity or outright scams. Another mistake is entering after a big rally. The asset has already gone a long way, but the crowd decides that now it has become safe. In reality, it is often the opposite: the stronger the euphoria, the more expensive the entry into risk.
Among typical mistakes, Mokrov highlighted two especially dangerous ones:
- trading with leverage;
- no exit plan.
Leverage seems like a way to earn faster, but for beginners it often becomes an accelerator for liquidating the deposit. And when an investor does not understand in advance what to do if there is no growth, he starts making painful decisions under the influence of panic.
A person loses not only because the market falls. He loses because he comes to the market with the mentality of a lottery ticket buyer.
Yaroslav Kabakov reminded that the crypto market is still young and full of hidden risks. Some assets are issued through mining, but large players, given the gradual merging of the crypto industry with the traditional financial market, can hedge risks with options and other instruments. Private investors often do not think about this and incur losses, while large players can profit even from declines.
Collective investments and various funds are more resilient to such volatile assets. But in the crypto market, collective investments are not so simple. In any case, diversification is never superfluous.
Bitcoin can be part of a portfolio only for those who are ready for sharp drawdowns and know in advance where the exit is. Its strong side is global infrastructure and high market involvement; its weak side is volatility, weak legal protection, and dependence on investor sentiment.
Forecast Until the End of 2026: The Market Will Become Tougher and More Professional
In conclusion, the experts moved on to forecasts, though both admitted that predicting the crypto market’s movement is a thankless task. Yaroslav Kabakov believes the situation will depend on geopolitics and the stability of the energy market. If tensions ease, high-risk assets may recover. If the pressure remains, crypto assets will stay under fire.
The estimated bitcoin range by the end of 2026, according to Kabakov, could be $30,000–$90,000.
Alexey Mokrov expects further market maturation. In his forecast, there will be more regulation, requirements for exchanges, attention to ETFs and the origin of funds. The crypto market will lose some of its romance but will become more professional.
An experienced investor keeps the money, and an investor with money gains experience. Crypto will not disappear, but there will be less tolerance for gray schemes, other people’s wallets, anonymous promises, and pretty presentations without infrastructure. By the end of 2026, the market will continue to separate the system from the noise. It matures through pain, and this pain is useful: it cleans out excess leverage, cheap overconfidence, and influencer magic.
The main conclusion of the discussion is that bitcoin and the entire crypto market can no longer be seen only as a speculative bet on rapid growth. This is a complex financial and technological environment, where investments, payments, sanctions, regulation, fraud, and high risks coexist. Those who can calculate not only potential profit but also the cost of mistakes will be able to earn in it.
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