The price of bitcoin came under heavy pressure again on the evening of June 24: bitcoin briefly dropped below the key $60K level, dragging major altcoins and shares of crypto-related companies with it. After a sharp decline, prices partially recovered, but experts believe that for a sustainable reversal, the market needs stronger demand, renewed investor interest, and signs that the current bear phase is ending.
Cryptocurrency remains a high-risk and volatile asset. Sharp price movements can lead to both profits and significant financial losses, so any investment in digital assets requires caution.
The drop affected not only digital currencies. Gold, stock indices, and technology sector shares in the United States also declined at the same time. But the crypto market faced its own worries in addition to the general risk-off sentiment: investors are concerned about issues at Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, as well as declining retail interest in cryptocurrencies amid the rapid development of artificial intelligence.
Bitcoin Fell to Lows Not Seen Since October 2024
On June 24, the price of bitcoin dropped to around $59K. This was the lowest level since October 2024. The intraday decline reached almost 6%. The BTC / USD pair managed to recover part of its losses after the crash, but the market remained tense.
The key figures for the drop and subsequent rebound were as follows:
- Bitcoin: minimum around $59K, then recovery to about $61.7K; intraday decline reached almost 6%.
- Ethereum: dropped to $1.55K, then recovered to about $1.65K; the drop was comparable to bitcoin.
- Crypto market overall: market capitalization at that time was about $2.12 trillion.
The pressure quickly shifted to companies whose value is closely tied to digital assets. For major stocks, the picture was as follows:
- Strategy: the company lost about 9% of its capitalization, and MSTR shares fell to $92.28, hitting a 27-month low. At the start of the year, shares were about $190, and at the peak in November 2024, they reached $543.
- Stretch: preferred shares with the ticker STRC hit a record low of $79.85, more than 20% below the $100 par value.
- Coinbase: crypto exchange shares fell by 5%.
- Robinhood: broker shares lost 5.8%.
- BitMine: the largest corporate Ethereum holder fell by 7.4%, with shares dropping to $13.85, a low since the ETH accumulation strategy launched a year ago.
- NASDAQ: for comparison, the index dropped by only about 1% at its lowest point.
Why Analysts Talk About the Bitcoin Cycle
Bitwise senior investment strategist Juan Leon linked the current drop to investors’ desire to reduce risk. In his view, this factor overlapped with the already weak state of the crypto market.
“Days like this are certainly painful. But let’s look at the situation soberly: the market has already gone through a similar scenario,” Juan Leon noted.
He believes that the bear phase will eventually end, and the crypto industry will emerge from it more mature and resilient.
Similar assessments are given by 21Shares, a company that issues cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds. They believe that bitcoin is still moving within its usual four-year cycles, although the market structure itself has already changed.
“The price dynamics still look familiar,” they say at 21Shares.
The company notes that the current drop of about 52% looks milder than the 80% declines in previous cycles. This does not eliminate the pain for investors, but shows that the market has changed: there are more institutional participants, regulated instruments, and public companies.
Bitcoin cycles usually refer to alternating phases of growth and decline, which have historically been linked to halving. There is no single universal method for calculating such cycles, but almost all models are based on the reduction in the issuance of new BTC.
Halving is an event built into bitcoin’s code. About once every four years, the rate at which new coins appear is cut in half. The main milestones are as follows:
- November 2012 — first halving.
- July 2016 — second halving.
- May 2020 — third halving.
- April 2024 — fourth halving.
- 2028 — the next halving is expected.
When the Market Could Return to Growth
Popular cyclical models indicate that a statistical bottom could form closer to the end of 2026, and a new peak — in early 2028. These estimates are based on history since 2013: previously, bitcoin usually found a bottom 12–14 months after reaching a peak. Similar data has been cited by asset managers BlackRock and Fidelity.
In 2025, many experts said that the familiar cyclical pattern might have broken. However, the current dynamics have once again started to resemble the classic bitcoin cycle model.
According to 21Shares analysts, the current cycle stands out for the institutionalization of the market through exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. But expectations of a strong capital inflow have not yet been met. Since the start of the year, net outflows from such products have totaled about $5 billion, and in June, ETFs faced the longest period of withdrawals since their launch in early 2024.
Against this backdrop, the forecast of Jiang Zhuoer, one of China’s well-known bitcoin miners, is important. According to Wu Blockchain, he suggested that the bottom of the current bear phase could come between October and December 2026. In this scenario, the forecasted range for bitcoin in 2026 is $42–44K.
Interestingly, Jiang Zhuoer based his estimate not only on cycles but also on the mNAV ratio of MicroStrategy. This indicator reflects the ratio of the company’s capitalization to the value of cryptocurrency on its balance sheet. Currently, mNAV has dropped to 0.72 and is almost at the 0.7 level seen in May 2022 during the transition from a bull to a bear market.
At the same time, the analyst warned: historically, the mNAV minimum did not coincide in time with the minimum of bitcoin’s price itself. In the previous cycle, the main digital currency reached its bottom about six months after MicroStrategy’s mNAV hit its low. If this pattern repeats, the current decline could drag on for a longer period.
What Needs to Change for a New Impulse
For a sustainable recovery, the market needs more than a brief rebound above $60K. In the near future, BTC / USD dynamics will depend on whether demand appears after the drop, whether pressure on crypto companies eases, and whether investors become bolder in buying risk assets.
Several factors are currently having the strongest impact on bitcoin’s price:
- Supply and demand: the market needs an influx of buyers, not just a brief technical rebound.
- Investor sentiment: risk aversion is weighing on cryptocurrencies along with stocks and other volatile assets.
- ETFs and institutional money: a slowdown in outflows or new capital inflows could support the market.
- The position of public crypto companies: the drop in Strategy, Coinbase, Robinhood, and BitMine is increasing nervousness.
- Macroeconomic background: the US dollar, stock indices, and the technology sector remain important benchmarks for the crypto market.
- Cycles and halving: many models still link growth and decline phases to the reduction in new BTC issuance.
Interest in regulated instruments is of particular importance. If ETF outflows slow or turn into inflows, this could be one of the first signs of improving sentiment. Major trading platforms, including Binance, also play an important role, as a significant portion of retail market activity passes through them.
For now, bitcoin remains in a zone of uncertainty. The US dollar continues to serve as the main benchmark for assessing crypto assets, and BTC / USD dynamics show that investors are not ready to return to aggressive buying quickly. Additional insight comes from public company metrics, including mNAV and related indicators like FDV in the crypto sector: they help gauge how willing the market is to pay for future growth.
What Is Bitcoin, Where to Buy It, and How to Track the Price
Bitcoin is the first and largest cryptocurrency, operating without a single governing center. Its foundation is the blockchain: a distributed database where network participants confirm transactions, and new BTC appear through mining. The rate of coin issuance is predetermined by code and is reduced about every four years through halving.
Bitcoin is purchased through crypto exchanges, brokerage apps, and other trading platforms. Major market participants include Binance, Coinbase, and Robinhood. You can track the price via the BTC / USD pair, through exchange and broker apps, as well as the dynamics of related instruments, including ETFs and shares of public crypto companies.
The main conclusion remains unchanged: the current crash does not look unique in bitcoin’s history, but it also does not guarantee a quick reversal. If the cyclical model holds, the period of weakness may continue, and the market will have to wait for more convincing signals of demand before a full-fledged bull trend appears.
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