The cryptocurrency digest begins with the two main topics of the week: inflation in the United States has once again heightened concerns about interest rates, and the European Union, starting July 1, 2026, will effectively close the market to crypto companies without a license. The bigger picture: the market is simultaneously pressured by ETF outflows, decreased miner activity, and caution from large corporate buyers.
Cryptocurrency remains under pressure from several directions at once. Investors are withdrawing money from spot ETFs, miners are operating on the edge of profitability, and large corporate buyers have noticeably slowed their pace of coin accumulation.
Key indicators of the week:
- Indicator: Fear and Greed Index. Value: 16 points. Comment: fear zone; a week earlier it was 20 points.
- Indicator: Bitcoin dominance. Value: 58%. Comment: the influence of the first cryptocurrency on the market remains high.
- Indicator: Bitcoin mining cost. Value: $70,404. Comment: this is 17% higher than the current market price.
ETF Outflows Increase Pressure on Bitcoin
Funds have been leaving spot cryptocurrency ETFs for the sixth week in a row. The total outflow has reached $1.6 billion, whereas at the beginning of the month it was about $110 million. The process has barely paused since early May, and since the middle of last week, it has accelerated noticeably.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin first tested the $65,000 level and then moved to a local decline. The price is now holding at the support area of $59,000–$60,000. These are levels the market last saw at the end of 2024.
Inflation and Interest Rates Again Become Main Risks
Bitcoin continues to react sharply to expectations regarding monetary policy. In May, the US consumer price index rose by 4.1%, and core inflation, which excludes short-term fluctuations in food and energy prices, was 3.4%.
At the same time, consumers are not cutting spending. Real expenditures rose by 0.3% after zero growth in April. Household income is supporting demand: it increased by 0.7%.
As a result, the market is pricing in a higher chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike. According to FedWatch, the probability of a hike at the next meeting is estimated at 31%, and the probability that the 3.50–3.75% range will remain until the end of the year is only 22%.
This is a bad combination for risk assets. The higher the interest rate, the stronger the competition for capital. Investors more often choose less volatile securities market instruments, and the crypto market loses some demand.
The price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is not driven by a single factor. It is simultaneously affected by supply and demand, news, regulation, technological updates, and the actions of major players—from ETF providers to companies buying coins for their balance sheets.
Corporate Buyers Slow Down
There is also little support from large companies this time. Strategy bought 520 BTC for $35 million. This is significantly less than purchases of more than $100 million each of the previous two weeks.
Strategy’s total reserve has grown to 847,365 BTC. This is about 4.04% of the maximum Bitcoin issuance. For shareholders, this model remains sensitive: every share of the company and every security related to crypto purchases reacts not only to the business but also to Bitcoin’s movement.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, another major player in the crypto treasury sector, also reduced its activity. Over the week, it bought 52,203 ETH, whereas previously it had acquired 77,000 and 127,000 ETH.
Now the total position of BitMine Immersion Technologies is 5,672,956 ETH, or about 4.7% of the total ETH issuance. At the same time, the company has placed 86% of this amount in staking.
Mining Is Becoming Less and Less Profitable
The decline in the crypto market is worsening the situation for miners. According to The Block, the average daily revenue on the Bitcoin network has dropped to about $30 million. Last summer, it exceeded $50 million.
Transaction fees generate only about $250,000 per day. About 20% of miners are currently operating at a loss. The average cost of mining one Bitcoin has remained above the market price for five consecutive months.
This is a serious stress test for mining. When the coin price does not cover costs, companies are forced to reduce risks, sell part of their reserves, or look for cheaper sources of capital.
Legal Risks Around Strategy Heighten Nervousness
The news background for cryptocurrencies also remains weak. Rosen Law Firm has launched an investigation into Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, and has invited investors who bought its securities to join a possible class action lawsuit.
The investigation concerns not only common shares of MSTR but also preferred securities STRF, STRC, STRK, and STRD. These are the instruments used to finance the Bitcoin accumulation program.
No violations have been charged so far. But the very fact of the investigation creates risk for all companies that have chosen the strategy of accumulating cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets. If shareholders start to challenge such decisions more actively, corporate demand for coins could weaken even further.
A similar conflict has already arisen around Solmate, a company that accumulates Solana and owns more than 2 million SOL. The largest shareholder accuses management of breaching fiduciary duties, insider trading, and unfair practices.
MiCA Changes the Rules of the Game in Europe
On July 1, 2026, the MiCA regulation transition period ends. From this date, a crypto platform without a CASP license loses the right to serve clients from the European Union.
Previously, more than 3,000 crypto companies operated in the EU under national rules. Only 17% of them, or 210 companies, have been able to meet the new requirements.
Status of major platforms in the EU after the transition to the new rules:
- Platform: Binance. License status in the EU: CASP license not obtained by the transition period. Client availability: service for some EU clients will be suspended.
- Platform: Coinbase. License status in the EU: MiCA requirements met. Client availability: operations will continue.
- Platform: Kraken. License status in the EU: MiCA requirements met. Client availability: operations will continue.
- Platform: OKX. License status in the EU: MiCA requirements met. Client availability: operations will continue.
- Platform: . License status in the EU: MiCA requirements met. Client availability: operations will continue.
When choosing a platform to buy or trade cryptocurrency, not only fees are important. It is safer to look at the license, service availability in the desired country, asset storage conditions, and basic account protection, including two-factor authentication.
Stablecoins have been hit especially hard. Due to MiCA’s strict reserve requirements, European regulated exchanges have already delisted Tether’s USDT. Circle’s USDC, the main competitor to USDT, complies with the new rules and remains available.
For every cryptocurrency transfer, platforms are now required to include financial identification of the transaction participants. Control is built around three actions:
- Automatic identification of the sender.
- Automatic identification of the recipient.
- Transfer of personal data for transaction monitoring.
Companies remaining in the market must separate their own funds from client money and ensure protection against cyberattacks. Against the backdrop of a constant cyberwar for financial infrastructure, this makes the market more transparent but increases the burden on legal players who did not have time to complete licensing due to bureaucratic procedures.
What This Means for Investors
Bitcoin’s deflationary model alone does not protect it from sell-offs. Retail investors and mining companies are reducing risk, and capital is flowing into stronger segments: memory manufacturers, artificial intelligence sector companies, and major tech stories around Anthropic and SpaceX.
For investors from Russia, it is important to separate crypto risks from traditional banking logic. The Bank of Russia regulates the Russian financial market, but global crypto assets remain a high-risk zone.
- Cryptocurrencies are not covered by the deposit insurance system.
- There is no capital protection from drawdowns: the token price can drop sharply.
- Different instruments carry different risks: initial public offerings, preferred securities, and token purchases operate under different rules.
The entire cryptocurrency market remains under pressure. Bitcoin has already approached psychologically important levels.
In the short term, Bitcoin has two clear scenarios. If the $59,000–$60,000 zone holds, the market may move sideways and wait for softer signals from the Federal Reserve. If support is broken, this could trigger a wave of margin position liquidations and accelerate the decline to the next strong zone around $44,000.
Looking ahead to 2026, 2030, and 2040, the same factors will be most important: the balance of supply and demand, ETF inflows or outflows, regulation, technological updates, the state of mining, and the actions of major players like Strategy. Until the Federal Reserve’s rhetoric becomes softer and investor interest in the artificial intelligence sector cools, cryptocurrencies will remain vulnerable. Competition for capital is too high, and even major players like Strategy no longer provide the market with the same support.
The opportunity for investors is to buy assets cheaper during steep declines if the risk is calculated in advance. The threat is being caught in margin liquidations, reduced liquidity, regulatory restrictions, or forced sales by miners and companies with crypto on their balance sheets.
Any investment in risky assets requires careful assessment, especially when inflation, regulation, ETF outflows, and mining are all simultaneously pressuring the market.
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