This week, the best deal turned out to be neither bitcoin nor gold. All the attention unexpectedly went to coffee—the very same one many people have in their kitchen.
On Monday, arabica jumped by 16.19%. For this market, that’s a huge leap, the largest single-day gain in the 21st century. The day closed at a five-and-a-half-month high. Robusta also surged, adding 8.83% and hitting a five-month peak.
Since the beginning of June, coffee futures have already risen by about 43%. Not long ago, the price hovered around 239 cents per pound, but the market quickly turned. There are several reasons: harvest delays in Brazil, declining exchange stocks, and risks associated with El Niño.
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Against this backdrop, even major cryptocurrencies and gold—which recently set new records—looked much calmer. In a single trading day, they didn’t come close to such a move.
Why Coffee Prices Are Soaring Due to Harvest Delays in Brazil
According to Barchart, on Monday, September arabica futures rose by 48.75 cents. This is the largest single-day jump since at least 2000.
The main reason was the situation in Brazil — the world’s largest coffee producer.
Coffee price. Source: Barchart/X
The coffee harvest in Brazil is running behind. According to Safras & Mercado, as of July 1, farmers had harvested only 52% of the 2026/27 season’s crop. A year ago by this time, it was already 60%, and the five-year average is 55%.
The weather isn’t helping either. In the largest arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, not a drop of rain fell in the week leading up to July 5, according to Somar Meteorologia. Meanwhile, Rural Clima is concerned about rainfall in mid-July. Meteorologists believe it could worsen the condition of the future crop.
Coffee stocks are also continuing to decline. On Monday, the volume of arabica in ICE warehouses fell to 366,756 bags, the lowest in more than two years. The strengthening of the Brazilian real is also having an impact, making exports less profitable. According to market participants, many farmers prefer not to sell coffee for now.
Risks remain for the next season as well. NOAA estimates a 67% chance of a record “super El Niño” forming. Such a weather event could disrupt coffee tree flowering in September and October, which is crucial for the 2026/27 harvest.
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At the same time, the market hasn’t completely lost reasons for a price decline. The U.S. Department of Agriculture USDA still forecasts a record coffee crop in Brazil, 71.9 million bags. And Rabobank recently raised its arabica surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags. Just four weeks ago, these expectations pushed prices to their lowest in nearly 19 months.
However, since then, sentiment has changed sharply. Investors have almost stopped paying attention to the forecasted supply glut. Additional support for coffee came from the overall rise in commodity assets, with gold holding above $4,000 per ounce this month.
Coffee Futures Break Out of Downward Channel on Weekly Chart
The weekly chart shows a confident breakout from the downward channel that the market had been in since the October 2025 high. The breakout occurred at the end of June, and now coffee is trading around 343 cents.
During the rally, the price already surpassed the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at 339.5 cents. This level is calculated between the June low of 238.7 cents and the October 2025 high of 440.26 cents.
Weekly chart of coffee futures. Source: TradingView
The next important level is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 363.26 cents. It coincides with the resistance zone between 363 and 375 cents, from which the price repeatedly reversed during 2025. That’s why this range remains the main obstacle to further growth.
The breakout was accompanied by increased trading volumes on the weekly chart. This indicates that the upward movement was driven by real demand, not just mass short covering. If the rally slows, the first support zone may be the range from 308 to 318 cents, which the market has already regained control over.
Daily Chart and RSI Breakout Point to Growth Toward 370 Cents
The daily chart also confirms the strength of the current move. The price broke the March 24 high at 318.8 cents. This level coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. The rally was accompanied by the largest trading volumes since the beginning of the year.
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After the powerful surge, the market’s focus shifted to the 370.65 cents level. This is where the January high is, and nearby is the 0.618 Fibonacci level. That’s why the 363—370 cents zone now looks like the most serious obstacle to further growth.
On Tuesday, buyers briefly slowed down. The price pulled back by about 2.4% to 341 cents, but remains above the 0.5 Fibonacci level for now. If this support holds, chances for continued growth remain.
Daily chart of coffee futures. Source: TradingView
Momentum indicators also point to the continuation of the uptrend. The daily relative strength index (RSI) broke the downward resistance line that had held it back since February 2025. Additional confirmation came from RSI reversals in August and September 2025. Now, RSI is around 75.
Such a value indicates strong buyer dominance, but also signals the market is overbought. Historically, after such levels, short-term corrections often follow, which matches the pullback that happened on Tuesday. At the same time, the latest investor positioning data showed that capital started flowing into commodities even before the recent price breakout.
Daily RSI chart for coffee futures.
Source: TradingView
The technical picture remains positive as long as coffee closes above the 315—319 cents range. If prices fall below this zone, the current rally may be seen as ordinary short covering, not the start of a new sustainable uptrend.
If the price manages to break through resistance in the 363—370 cents range, the next targets could be 397 cents and the psychologically important 400 cents mark.
For investors choosing the most promising commodities for the rest of the year, coffee has unexpectedly become one of the main contenders.
In the coming weeks, the market will closely monitor how the harvest situation develops in Brazil. If the pace of harvesting remains below last year’s, and the weather continues to create problems for producers, demand may continue to outstrip supply. At the same time, market participants are in no hurry to completely abandon the big harvest scenario. Therefore, upcoming stock reports and new data on the harvest campaign may become the key factor determining the future direction of coffee prices.
