After a recent rally, bitcoin consolidated around $63,000. Despite the recovery, the market is still searching for the answer to the main question: where could the bottom of the current cycle be.
One of the benchmarks analysts are now watching is the Electrical Cost indicator. It reflects the average electricity cost to mine one BTC and is currently around $48,694.
Historically, bitcoin’s price has rarely stayed below this level, which is why many consider it an important support level.
What Is Bitcoin’s Electrical Cost?
The Electrical Cost indicator is calculated by Capriole Investments. It shows how much miners spend on electricity on average to mine one bitcoin. This level is now around $48,694.
Bitcoin electrical cost. Source: X.
In addition to Electrical Cost, market participants often look at Production Cost. This indicator takes into account not only electricity expenses but also equipment, maintenance, and other mining costs. That is why it is usually significantly higher.
Recently, analyst Ted Pillous showed a chart covering the period from 2012 to 2026. The chart shows that during past crashes, the market regularly found support near Electrical Cost. This was the case during the downturns of 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022.
According to Pillous, if there is no new large-scale crisis, bitcoin could finish its decline around $50,000.
But this does not mean the price will necessarily stop there.
Charles Edwards reminded that there have been moments in history when the price fell below Electrical Cost. However, such deviations were short-lived and occurred during major crises.
“Yes, this has happened, but only for a few weeks in the entire history of bitcoin,” he noted.
That is why Electrical Cost is more often seen not as a strict boundary, but as a reference point near which the market has often finished the toughest phases of a decline.
Where the $48,694 Level Sits Among Bitcoin’s Key Supports
Electrical Cost is not the only benchmark for analysts. This indicator is part of a whole chain of support levels that the market is currently watching.
The first is considered the 200-week moving average around $62,000. In this cycle, bitcoin tested it for the first time only this month.
Below are the 300-week moving average and the Realized Price indicator, which are now around $54,000.
The Electrical Cost level at $48,694 is just below this zone. If the price drops there, the next important range will be $40,000–$49,000. Several independent models point to this area as the potential bottom of the current cycle.
Time-based models also hint at this scenario. Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes the most likely timing for the market bottom is October 2026.
A similar result is shown by a separate model based on halving cycles. According to its calculations, about 125 days remain until the expected minimum.
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Thus, Electrical Cost can be seen as one of the key on-chain benchmarks that complements other market valuation models. Notably, this level almost matches the forecast of Ted Pillous, who expects bitcoin’s bottom to form around $50,000.
What Could Break This Scenario
This theory has an important condition. Charles Edwards notes that in the past, bitcoin only fell below the Electrical Cost level during major shocks. Therefore, the main risks remain a large-scale recession, a new global crisis, or events on the scale of the COVID pandemic.
However, history shows that even strong support levels do not always withstand market pressure. For example, in 2022, bitcoin traded below the 200-week moving average for several months, even though many investors considered it a reliable cycle bottom.
If a similar situation repeats, the market could test the strength of the Electrical Cost level around $48,694.
Upcoming central bank decisions could also influence bitcoin’s next moves. On June 17, the US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting, and the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision.
Currently, BTC is trading around $63,000. If the price falls below $54,000, traders’ attention may shift to the Electrical Cost level, which is around $48,694.
If this support also fails, the market risks seeing prices in the $40,000–$49,000 range. Many analysts name this area as the possible endpoint of the current decline.
At the same time, holding above the Electrical Cost level will be a strong argument for those who believe the main part of the drop is already behind us.
The next few weeks could be decisive for determining the market’s further direction.
