In just one day, Polymarket turned the military conflict into one of the largest markets in its history. Contracts on US strikes against Iran and the possible change of power in Tehran collected hundreds of millions of dollars. In terms of trading volume, they are now on par with the US presidential election.
$529 Million on One Scenario
The largest market was “Will the US Strike Iran?”, which opened back on December 22. The total turnover exceeded $529 million. This is one of the biggest contracts in the platform’s history and the largest in the “World” and “Geopolitics” categories.
A specific date, February 28, attracted $89.6 million. After the strikes began, all contracts for the end of February and the beginning of March closed with a “yes” result. Participants who bought the right day in advance received a payout under the binary model.
The settlement rules were strict. Only drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian territory were counted. Cyberattacks and interceptions were not considered.
Bets on a Change of Power
The contract “Ali Khamenei Will Leave Office by March 31” collected $45 million and closed at 100% after his death was confirmed by Iranian television. This was one of the most active geopolitical markets of the week.
The probability chart in January and February stayed in the 25–50% range, then quickly jumped to 100% after the news. The largest participants earned hundreds of thousands of dollars.
At the same time, bets on longer-term scenarios increased. The probability of regime change by June 30 is estimated at 54%. Another 30% of participants are betting on the complete elimination of the supreme leader’s position.
Ceasefire Forecasts
The ceasefire market shows a low probability of a quick agreement. By March 2, the chance is estimated at 4%, and by March 6 — at 15%. However, by March 31, participants are pricing in a 61% probability, and by April 30 — 78%. The market expects the conflict to end in weeks, not months.
Possibility of a Ground Operation
The contract “Will the US Enter Iran by 2027” is trading at a 19% probability. A separate market, “Troops Enter by March 7,” is estimated at 28% with a volume of about $2 million. Thus, participants are not only reacting to current events, but also shaping the expectation curve for escalation.
Suspicions of Insider Bets
Before the strikes began, activity looked unusual. According to on-chain analysts Bubblemaps, six wallets earned about $1.2 million by betting on a strike before February 28.
Most addresses were funded a day before the operation. Funds were directed specifically to the contract with the exact date, not to a broader time range. The largest wallet turned about $61,000 into more than $493,000 in profit.
This concentration intensified discussion about possible access to information before it was made public.
Why Traditional Markets Don’t Work This Way
Stock and commodity markets open on a schedule. There is no trading on weekends. Polymarket operates 24/7 and allows anyone with a crypto wallet to take a position the moment rumors or news appear.
The platform added a separate section dedicated to Iran and published an explanation about the mission of prediction markets. The company stated that such markets help form real-time assessments that traditional media do not always provide.
What This Means
Turnover in the hundreds of millions of dollars shows that geopolitics is becoming a full-fledged trading asset. Prediction markets are starting to compete with classic sources of information in terms of reaction speed.
At the same time, the growth in turnover increases the risks of manipulation and trading on non-public data. The higher the stakes, the more attention there is to transparency.
Polymarket has demonstrated that it can quickly turn a global event into a liquid market. The question now is whether the platform can maintain participant trust on such sensitive topics.
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