On May 12, US inflation data for April will be released. The Cleveland Fed forecasts an acceleration of the annual CPI to 3.56%. For Bitcoin, this is an unfavorable backdrop — and this time, the largest institutional buyer has paused.
What the Inflation Forecast Says
The Cleveland Fed maintains its own real-time inflation forecasting model. According to the latest data, the annual CPI for April will be 3.56% compared to 3.3% in March. The monthly figure is expected at 0.45% — lower than March’s 0.9%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is forecast at 2.56% year-over-year.
The picture is mixed. The monthly rate is slowing, but the annual figure is rising again. For the Fed, this limits the room to cut rates. Markets, which for several months hoped for multiple cuts in 2026, are once again revising expectations toward slower easing.
Bitcoin’s reaction to CPI data releases since June 2025: red zones — drop after the report, green — growth, gray — no clear direction
This matters for Bitcoin: with high rates and uncertain inflation, institutional portfolio managers hold fewer speculative assets.
Why Past Hot Reports Did Not Drop BTC
In March, annual inflation rose from 2.4% to 3.3% — seemingly bad news for risk assets. But after that report, Bitcoin rose by more than 15%. The explanation lies in the volume of institutional purchases.
Institutional Bitcoin purchases according to Capriole Investments: the overall growth rate is now at $37,696 — significantly below the peaks of 2024–2025
According to Capriole Investments, institutional buyers during that period absorbed more than 500% of the daily volume of new Bitcoin mining. Strategy — Michael Saylor’s company — provided a significant portion of this demand, buying BTC week after week.
This mechanism worked as a cushion: any macro pressure on the price was met with a counterflow of purchases from large structural players.
Strategy Has Paused — and This Changes the Calculations
Before publishing its first-quarter report, Strategy stopped buying Bitcoin. The reason is related to the status of its preferred STRC shares: they are trading below the $100 par value. When the stock is below par, raising capital through its placement becomes unprofitable — and this is the mechanism Strategy used to finance BTC purchases.
Until STRC recovers above par, new large Bitcoin purchases by the company are unlikely. This removes one of the most consistent buyers of recent months from the market. Without this support, Bitcoin’s reaction to a hot CPI may be different.
Technical Signal: Wedge on the Daily Chart
Daily BTC/USD chart: rising wedge with a target decline to $70,288. RSI — 64.40, EMA 200 — $82,020
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is forming a rising wedge pattern. This is a pattern where the price rises within a narrowing range — the upper and lower boundaries converge to a point. Historically, such patterns more often end with a breakdown to the downside.
As of Sunday, BTC was moving toward the top of the wedge around $84,000, where the two trend lines converge. If the price breaks the lower boundary, the calculated target for the decline by the height of the pattern is about $70,000.
Analyst Killa pointed to a key level: $78,600 — the weekly open. Losing this level opens the way to the $74,000–75,000 zone. According to him, it is worth watching for sharp price movements near this mark — they may signal the direction of the next move.
There Is Also a Bullish Scenario
A rising wedge does not mean a guaranteed drop. If the price breaks through the top of the pattern — around $84,000, this coincides with the 200-day exponential moving average. Consolidation above this level nullifies the bearish scenario and opens the way to $90,000–95,000.
The bullish scenario will play out if the CPI comes in better than expected — for example, if the annual figure is below the forecasted 3.56%. In this case, rate expectations will ease, the dollar will weaken, and Bitcoin will have a reason to rise.
What Will Determine the Next Move
Until May 12, the market will operate with uncertainty. Two factors set the framework: the Cleveland Fed’s inflation forecast points to an acceleration of the annual CPI, and support from the largest institutional buyer is temporarily absent.
This does not mean a drop is inevitable. But it does mean that Bitcoin has fewer buffers against a negative market reaction than it did in March. The CPI report on Tuesday and price action around the $78,600 level are two benchmarks to watch in the coming days.
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