Bitcoin is trading below $70,000 and so far cannot hold above this level. After a short-term rebound, the price again faced resistance. The market is showing weakness, and structural indicators do not confirm the end of the correction.
The key question is whether the current growth is the beginning of a reversal or just a pause in the downward trend.
Historical Cycles Do Not Signal a Reversal
The Pi Cycle Top indicator helps assess the market phase. It compares the 111-day moving average with the doubled 350-day average. When the lines converge, the market is considered overheated. When they diverge extremely, the asset appears undervalued.
Currently, neither of these scenarios is observed. The divergence of the averages rather indicates the middle of a bear phase than the formation of a bottom.
In previous cycles, such periods lasted about a year and were accompanied by prolonged weakness. Historically, recovery began later, after the accumulation phase.
Loss-Making Sales Continue
An additional signal is given by the SOPR indicator. It remains below level 1, which means a significant portion of investors are locking in losses.
As long as market participants are selling below their entry price, sustainable growth is difficult. A prolonged SOPR below one usually indicates pressure and a lack of strong demand. Without the indicator returning above 1, it is premature to talk about a trend reversal.
Technical Picture
At the time of publication, BTC is trading around $66,400. The price remains below the descending resistance line, which has limited movement for several weeks.
The money flow index indicates a predominance of capital outflow. This confirms that sellers retain control.
A breakdown below $65,000 may open the way to the $62,800 zone. This level has already been tested twice in a week, increasing the likelihood of it being retested if pressure intensifies.
Macro Background Increases Caution
Global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are increasing the tendency to reduce risk. In such conditions, investors prefer to cut positions rather than increase them. Until macroeconomic factors stabilize, it is difficult to expect aggressive capital inflows.
Possible Alternative Scenario
If BTC holds support around $66,200 and new buying appears, the price may test $68,800. A confident hold above $70,000 will change the current structure and reduce the likelihood of continued correction. However, such a move requires sustained demand, not a short-term impulse.
What's Next?
The current picture is formed by several factors. The downward trend, SOPR below 1, weak money flow, and pressure from the macro background form a cautious outlook.
Short-term rebounds are possible. But without confirmation from on-chain metrics and buying volume, the market risks remaining in a range with a downward bias.
Bitcoin is in a phase of uncertainty. Further dynamics will depend on the ability to hold key levels and restore sustained demand.
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