Bitcoin started the week under pressure and once again fell below $60,000. The main blow did not come from within the crypto market, but from the currency market: the Japanese yen hit multi-year lows against the dollar, increasing demand for the U.S. currency.
BTC fell by more than 1% during the Asian session and traded around $58,500. The price remained below the 200-week moving average—an important level closely watched by long-term market participants.
The Weak Yen Has Become a Problem for BTC
The yen’s decline strengthened the dollar across almost the entire currency market. The Japanese currency dropped to 162.40 per dollar—a low not seen since October 1986.
Against this backdrop, the dollar index rose to about 101.32 after being around 101 the day before. For bitcoin, this is an unpleasant combination.
When the dollar strengthens, risk assets usually feel the pressure. Cryptocurrencies become less attractive to global buyers, and some capital flows into safer dollar instruments.
Why the Yen Is So Important for Markets
The yen has been used for many years as a currency for carry trade. Investors borrowed money in Japan at low rates and invested it in higher-yielding assets in other countries.
As long as the rate differential was large, this strategy worked. The Fed raised rates above 5%, while the Bank of Japan kept policy near zero for a long time. Even after a recent hike, the Japanese rate remains around 1%, noticeably below the U.S. level of about 3.5%.
Because of this, the yen has lost about 57% against the dollar since 2021. The more it falls, the more tension builds in global positions built on cheap Japanese money.
The Market Fears a Carry Trade Reversal
The main risk is not just the weak yen. The danger is that at some point the Bank of Japan may move from words to tough actions.
So far, authorities mainly use verbal warnings and try to curb the currency’s decline with statements. But if the regulator has to sharply raise rates or intervene more forcefully, it could trigger the unwinding of carry trades.
Then investors will start selling assets bought with borrowed yen. Stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies could come under pressure. For BTC, this is especially important because it is sensitive to declines in global liquidity.
Japan Has Few Easy Options
The situation is complicated by Japan’s government debt. It exceeds 220% of GDP, so a sharp rate hike could hit the budget and increase the risk of a fiscal crisis.
But inaction is also dangerous. If the Bank of Japan does not curb the currency’s decline, the yen may continue to weaken and the dollar to strengthen.
It turns into a trap. Too loose a policy puts pressure on the yen. Too tight could trigger a global asset sell-off. In both scenarios, the outlook for bitcoin remains nervous.
The Technical Picture for BTC Remains Weak
A drop below $60,000 is important in itself, but even more important is the position relative to the 200-week moving average. This level is often seen as a long-term market boundary.
When BTC trades below it, investors start to assess the risk of further declines more cautiously. For buyers, this is no longer just an ordinary intraday dip, but a signal that the market remains in a weak phase.
If the price cannot quickly return above the long-term benchmark, the pressure may persist. Especially if the dollar continues to strengthen.
Strategy Added a Separate Risk
The crypto market is also under pressure from the story around Strategy, the largest public holder of bitcoin. The company approved a buyback program for preferred and common shares of up to $1 billion for each class.
At the same time, it is launching a $1.25 billion monetization program, which may include selling bitcoin to raise capital. For the market, this is a sensitive signal because Michael Saylor has promoted the idea of ‘never selling BTC’ for many years.
If the company really starts selling part of its reserves, it will happen at a time when the market is already weak. Even the potential for such sales increases investor caution.
STRC Weakened the Buying Model
The problem with Strategy is not only the potential sale of BTC. Its preferred STRC shares, which were supposed to help finance new bitcoin purchases, have dropped sharply in recent weeks.
This worsens the channel for raising capital. Previously, the company could issue instruments and direct funds to buy BTC, but now this scheme looks less sustainable.
Investors are starting to ask not only about the size of bitcoin reserves, but also about how stable the funding structure is. As long as BTC is not growing, the tension inside such a model increases.
Why Macro Is Once Again More Important Than Crypto News
The current decline shows that bitcoin remains dependent on global liquidity. A weak yen, strong dollar, risk of carry trade unwinding, and problems of major BTC holders all add up to a single backdrop.
Even good local crypto news works less effectively in such an environment. When the currency market moves sharply, investors first reduce risk and only then consider individual stories.
For BTC, this means that recovery will depend not only on demand within the crypto market. A calmer dollar environment and less fear around the Japanese currency are needed.
What Happens Next?
The nearest focus area is bitcoin’s return above $60,000 and the 200-week average. If the price consolidates above this level, the market can talk about an attempt at stabilization.
If BTC stays below, sellers will keep the upper hand. Then the next wave of pressure may come not from crypto, but again from the currency market—through the dollar, yen, and rate expectations.
The main takeaway is simple. Bitcoin is falling not only because of weak demand for cryptocurrencies. It is under pressure from the strengthening dollar caused by the yen’s collapse, as well as fears of a possible carry trade reversal. As long as the Japanese currency remains under pressure and the dollar rises, it will be difficult for BTC to quickly regain buyer confidence.
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