Bitcoin has approached levels that in previous cycles appeared more often closer to the final stage of the bear market. According to Checkonchain, the price has dropped to the area of the 200-week average, which long-term investors use as a rough line of the four-year trend.
Such a zone usually indicates a deep revaluation. The model classifies current levels as the bottom 10% of BTC’s historical valuation range. But this does not mean that recovery will start immediately. In previous cycles, capitulation was often only the first stage, after which the market moved sideways for months.
The Market Already Looks Exhausted
Sentiment has become extremely negative. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 9 points versus 11 a week earlier and 48 a month ago. This is the “extreme fear” zone, where some sellers are already acting not by calculation, but out of a desire to reduce risk at any cost.
Such values often appear near important lows. But this signal has a weak spot: it does not show the exact date of the reversal. It only indicates that the market is already in a phase of severe stress.
Checkonchain warns about exactly this. Usually, capitulation comes first, then a grueling period begins. The price stops falling vertically, but does not quickly return to previous levels. This is the stage where investors’ patience is tested.
The Rebound Still Looks Weak
This week, BTC briefly dropped below $60,000 for the first time since 2024. Later, the price recovered to about $62,600, gaining about 2% in a day. But the weekly picture still remains negative.
The rise also affected some major altcoins, but the movement was shallow. Ethereum rose by about 1.4%, BNB added 1.3%, Solana grew by less than 1%, Dogecoin recovered about 1%. XRP, on the contrary, fell slightly.
This looks more like a technical pause than a full-fledged reversal. Over the week, most major assets are still in the red. Ethereum and XRP look especially weak, losing more than the others among large coins.
ETF Outflows Hinder Recovery
Additional pressure is coming from spot bitcoin ETFs. The market faced a record series of outflows, and this worsens the picture for buyers.
ETFs have become one of the main channels of institutional demand. When money leaves them, the price loses important support. This is especially sensitive at a time when retail investors are already scared, and the macroeconomic background remains tough.
That is why even rebounds now look limited. For a strong recovery, the market needs not only to hold $60,000, but also to see the return of inflows into instruments through which large capital accesses BTC.
Hot Inflation Closed the Path to a Quick Reversal
Macroeconomics is not helping the market. In May, consumer prices in the US rose by 0.5% compared to April and by 4.2% year over year. This is the highest annual figure since early 2023.
The main reason was the rise in energy prices amid the war around Iran. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% and was softer than expected. But the overall report still heightened concerns.
This is a problem for the crypto market. If inflation remains high, it is harder for the Fed to move to rate cuts. More expensive money reduces interest in risky assets, and bitcoin is once again trading as part of this risk segment.
The Fed Meeting Became the Main Event for BTC
Now the market’s attention is shifting to the Fed meeting on June 16–17. According to Wirex Head of Trading Yves Renno, the regulator’s tone may determine the near-term range for BTC.
If the signal is softer, the market may try to return to $68,000–72,000. If the Fed maintains a tough stance, the risk of a new drop below $60,000 will remain high.
Politics also complicates the situation. The probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 on Polymarket fell from 62% to 48%. For the crypto industry, this is an unpleasant shift: expectations of clearer regulation in the US have weakened again.
Pressure Extends Beyond the Crypto Market
The problems are not limited to BTC. Global stocks are also falling. The MSCI All Country World Index fell to its lowest in more than a month, and the Asian MSCI index lost about 0.8% and hit a three-week low.
The background worsened due to US strikes on targets in Iran and the actual breakdown of the ceasefire that had been in place since April. Against this backdrop, Brent rose by about 1.8% to $95 per barrel.
The rise in oil supports inflation risks. This brings the market back to the topic of rates and expensive money. For bitcoin, this link is especially dangerous: geopolitics raises energy prices, inflation increases Fed hawkishness, and investors reduce risk.
Rates Are Rising Not Only in the US
Pressure on risky assets has become global. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates for the first time since September 2023. The bond market is already pricing in higher borrowing costs in different regions.
This worsens conditions for assets without stable cash flow. Cryptocurrencies, tech stocks, and other volatile instruments feel weaker in such an environment.
For BTC, this means that recovery will depend not only on local support on the chart. A reversal in rate expectations, a reduction in the geopolitical premium, and a stop to ETF outflows are needed.
What Is Next
Bitcoin is already in a zone that historically corresponded to deep bear valuations. This is an important signal for long-term investors. But it does not guarantee rapid growth.
The market may go through a long phase of sideways movement, where weak holders will gradually exit and large capital will wait for a clearer macro backdrop. This part is often more difficult than the actual drop.
The main takeaway is simple. BTC is close to capitulation levels, but the path after capitulation is rarely quick. While inflation is high, rates are scaring the market again, ETFs are losing money, and geopolitics is pressuring stocks and oil, bitcoin needs more than just a rebound. It needs to prove that sellers are truly exhausted.
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