Bitcoin has once again found itself in a narrow range. The price bounced from the area around $74,500 but has not yet managed to return above key on-chain levels near $77,000. Against the backdrop of a major options expiration on May 29, the market is effectively squeezed between two important marks: $75,000 below and $80,000 above.
This structure explains the low volatility of recent days. Buyers are defending the short-term support area, while sellers are not allowing BTC to consolidate above zones where large options positions and on-chain resistance are concentrated.
On-Chain Levels Are Once Again Driving the Market
Annual Volume-Weighted Cost Basis
Since the beginning of April, bitcoin has been following the realized price for 2026, which is now around $76,200. This figure reflects the average purchase price of coins that last moved in the current year.
For traders, such levels become more important than typical round numbers. They show where the average entry point of large groups of market participants is. If the price stays below such a zone for a long time, it indicates tension among recent buyers.
A similar situation already occurred in February, when BTC fell almost to $60,000 and found support near the realized price for 2023. Now the market is once again looking at the cost basis of individual investor cohorts as the real boundary of supply and demand.
$74,500 Support Has So Far Held the Price
Over the weekend, bitcoin briefly dropped to $74,500 but then bounced from the 128-day moving average. Traders use this level as one of the technical benchmarks of the current cycle.
So far, holding this level has helped avoid a deeper decline. However, the market has not yet shown a full reversal upward. BTC remains below important on-chain metrics near $77,000.
That is where the average market cost basis and the average purchase price of short-term holders and the cost basis of short-term holders are. These levels often show how confident investors who bought the asset in recent months feel.
The $77,000 Area Has Become the Main Resistance
As long as bitcoin is trading below $77,000, the market looks cautious. This zone has become the boundary between recovery and continued sideways movement.
If BTC can return above the cost basis of short-term holders, sentiment may quickly improve. In that case, some buyers may once again consider a move to $80,000.
But as long as the price remains below, short-term market participants are under pressure. This limits demand and makes any rebound vulnerable to profit-taking.
Deribit Expiration Strengthens the Range
BTC Price + Key Levels
Additional pressure on the price is created by the major options expiration on May 29. Contracts worth about $6.6 billion are set to expire on Deribit, and the largest positions are concentrated right around the current range.
On the call options side, the main level is around $80,000. Open interest there is estimated at about $600 million. On the put side, the largest zone is near $75,000, where about $377 million is concentrated.
This setup creates an incentive for market makers to keep the price between these marks. The closer the expiration, the more the market may “stick” to the $75,000–80,000 range.
More Than 15% of BTC Supply Bought in This Range
Glassnode data shows that more than 15% of all bitcoin supply was acquired between $74,000 and $83,000. This is a very dense cost basis zone for the market.
When so many coins are concentrated in a narrow range, the price often moves slowly and nervously. Every rise prompts some investors to exit at break-even, and every drop attracts buyers who defend their positions.
That is why BTC now looks “trapped.” The market needs to either confidently break through the upper boundary or lose the lower support for volatility to return.
What’s Next?
Until the May 29 expiration, bitcoin may continue to trade in the range between $75,000 and $80,000. On-chain levels, supply concentration, and options positions are all working in one direction for now: they are restraining sharp moves.
For a bullish scenario, BTC needs to reclaim the $77,000 area and then consolidate above $80,000. This would ease pressure on short-term holders and could open the way to a stronger recovery.
If the price loses $74,500–75,000 again, the market risks moving into a deeper correction. For now, bitcoin remains in wait-and-see mode, and the next major move will likely begin after it leaves the current range.
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