Bitcoin once again failed to stay above a key level and pulled back to the $90,000 area. The market received strong US employment data, which supported the dollar and triggered a correction in digital assets. Optimism about a December Fed rate cut could not overcome the local selling pressure.
According to analysts, BTC weakened immediately after the publication of unemployment claims statistics. The figure was lower than expected, which strengthened the position of the US labor market and increased doubts among some traders about the need for aggressive Fed policy easing.
Strong employment data does not reduce the likelihood of a December rate cut
Initial and continuing jobless claims were better than forecasts. Usually, such data is interpreted as a sign of economic resilience, prompting the Fed to act more cautiously. However, investment companies and analytical platforms repeat: pressure on consumers is growing, and the gap between asset prices and the population’s purchasing power is widening.
The Kobeissi Letter service noted that “the Fed simply has no choice,” as inflation drops to 3% and household financial stress intensifies. Against the backdrop of a rapid rise in major tech stocks, the market still expects the Fed to cut rates at the December 10 meeting.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a probability of about 89% for a third consecutive rate cut. But there is no consensus among analysts: some funds and strategists suggest the regulator may pause.
Global central bank policy increases uncertainty
The discussion is complicated by an unusual situation in Japan. Against the backdrop of a large-scale economic stimulus program of $135 billion, the Bank of Japan continues to discuss raising rates. This creates a ‘logic gap’ effect, as analysts at The Kobeissi Letter put it, and increases volatility in the debt market.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is just 0.5% away from its all-time high. Risk assets in the traditional sector are rising, but cryptocurrencies are not following the stock market. The divergence has persisted for several weeks.
Multiple resistance levels keep bitcoin in a weak zone
Traders note that for a trend reversal, bitcoin needs to reclaim several significant levels at once. The most important is the 2025 yearly open at $93,500. Failure to stay above it becomes an argument in favor of a bearish scenario.
In addition, there is a liquidity zone near $100,000 on the horizon and the 50-week moving averages, which act as strong resistance.
The Material Indicators analytical team stated that bitcoin has not yet shown signs of a bull market recovery. According to them, to talk about renewed growth, BTC must break through the $96–98k zone with a ‘healthy’ weekly RSI. This is not happening yet.
In a separate comment, analysts emphasized: failure to break the yearly open is a ‘clear signal that the bearish scenario remains strong.’
What’s next?
Despite the pressure of strong macroeconomic statistics, the market still hopes for a Fed rate cut in December. This could increase the inflow of liquidity into high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. But for now, uncertainty is high and the structure of the bitcoin market remains weak.
Analytical indicators, including liquidity data, order book status, and the behavior of large players, indicate: BTC needs to overcome the nearest resistance zones to reverse the negative trend and return to upward momentum.
Until then, the bearish scenario remains the base case for a significant portion of traders.
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