Bitcoin lost the $70,000 level, and on-chain data again points to a distribution phase. Recent buyers have started to exit positions at a loss, and the inflow of coins to exchanges has intensified.
Sentiment has also worsened. The Fear and Greed Index has returned to the “extreme fear” zone, and spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded a series of outflows. At the same time, large addresses have become more active, which leaves the market a chance for selective BTC accumulation during a period of weakness.
New Buyers Start Selling Below Entry Price
Bitcoin: Short-Term Holder SOPR
The signal came from the Short-Term Holder SOPR metric. It shows whether short-term BTC holders are selling above or below their average purchase price. When the indicator falls below 1, the market records loss-taking sales from recent participants.
Currently, STH-SOPR is around 0.98. This indicates that some investors who recently entered bitcoin have started closing positions at a loss. For the market, this is a typical reaction to a sharp deterioration in the external environment and the breakdown of important levels.
What matters is something else. The pressure is coming not so much from long-term holders as from newer buyers. That is, the market is not yet showing a full exit of old capital, but rather is being cleared of participants who could not withstand the new wave of volatility.
Coins Increasingly Moving to Exchanges
SOPR Age Ranges on Exchanges
An additional risk is associated with holders who have held BTC for six to twelve months. According to CryptoQuant, since May this group has been increasingly transferring coins to trading platforms.
Analyst Rei Researcher noted that the volume of such transfers has risen to levels the market last saw in October 2025. At that time, bitcoin was setting new highs above $126,000, after which a prolonged pullback began.
A transfer to an exchange does not mean an immediate sale, but it increases the potential supply. If buyers cannot absorb this volume, BTC recovery will be more difficult. As a result, exchange inflows become one of the main barriers to a reversal.
Losses Become More Noticeable in On-Chain Data
Realized Profit/Loss Ratio in Bitcoin
The realized profit/loss ratio metric from Glassnode worsened over the week from -0.4 to -0.87. This means the share of realized losses has increased significantly relative to profits.
Simply put, more and more participants are agreeing to sell BTC below their entry price. For the market, this is a painful stage, but it often accompanies the clearing out of weak positions. After such phases, part of the supply passes to more resilient buyers.
Glassnode describes the current picture as distribution with a deterioration in market breadth. This means that sales are not isolated but affect a wider range of participants. For bitcoin to move to recovery, this supply flow must begin to decrease.
Fear Again Becomes the Market’s Main Emotion
The Fear and Greed Index fell to 23 points. This is the “extreme fear” zone, where the market had already been from early February to late April.
The index takes into account volatility, trading activity, market dynamics, and social signals. A value below 25 usually indicates that investors are avoiding risk and are in no hurry to return to positions.
Over the week, the crypto market capitalization fell by 7%, and bitcoin lost 9.3%. Against this backdrop, the worsening sentiment seems natural. After falling below $70,000, the market began to see the decline not as a normal pullback but as a risk of continued correction.
ETFs Continue to Lose Capital
Weakness was exacerbated by spot bitcoin ETFs. According to Farside Investors, the funds recorded outflows for 11 trading days in a row.
The largest daily outflow in this series was $733.4 million and occurred on May 27. For BTC, this is an important signal because ETFs remain one of the main channels of institutional demand.
When money leaves funds for several days in a row, it is harder for the market to maintain support. Even the activity of large buyers may not immediately offset such an outflow. Therefore, for BTC recovery, it is important not only to hold levels but also to see a reversal of flows into ETFs.
Whales Become More Active on the Decline
Amid the weakness, a positive signal also appeared. Santiment reported that when BTC fell below $70,000, the network recorded the highest number of transactions of $100,000 or more since April 22.
Such activity is often associated with large participants. This does not always mean direct buying, but during periods of fear, an increase in large transfers may indicate accumulation.
As a result, the picture is mixed. Short-term holders are selling at a loss, ETFs are recording outflows, and large addresses are becoming more active. This does not eliminate risks, but it shows that some capital is already looking for entry points on the decline.
What’s Next?
Bitcoin remains in a zone of weakness. On-chain data shows loss-taking sales, coin inflows to exchanges, and worsening sentiment. As long as these signals persist, recovery will be difficult.
At the same time, the activity of large transactions means the market cannot be considered completely one-sided. If whales are indeed accumulating BTC, the current fear may become the basis for a future reversal.
The near-term scenario depends on two factors. The market needs to see a decrease in exchange inflows and a halt to ETF outflows. Without this, bitcoin may remain in the distribution phase and seek support below current levels.
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