On the weekly Ethereum chart, two long-term moving averages have crossed—a pattern traders call the ‘death cross.’ At the same time, spot ETFs for bitcoin and ether have posted their seventh consecutive week of outflows. The market has clearly entered a phase of deep pessimism, but the history of cycles suggests that such moments often precede a reversal.
What Happened on the Ethereum Chart
The 50-week exponential moving average for Ethereum has fallen below the 200-week average—an event that is rare in itself. In all previous sell-offs, the asset never formed such a pattern on such a long time frame. This is a long-term bearish signal that traders take seriously precisely because of its rarity: short-term moving average crosses happen regularly, but a cross on weekly data over such a long period signals structural, not temporary, trend weakening.
The price of Ethereum has dropped below $1,750—a fall of nearly 4% in a day and about 30% compared to a year ago. Bitcoin is relatively more stable but also under pressure: a drop of about 2% over 24 hours kept the price in the lower part of the $62,000 range, although the asset already dipped below $58,000—a new 21-month low before a partial recovery. The asset still failed to hold above the resistance zone of $64,000–$65,000.
The sell-off affected the entire market without exception. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization excluding bitcoin and ether fell by 30% since January—the decline was evenly distributed among altcoins rather than concentrated in specific projects.
Prediction Markets Price in Further Declines
Traders on prediction platforms estimate the probability that Ethereum will first reach $1,500 before rising to $3,000 at 72.3%. This is a significant tilt in favor of the bearish scenario—participants in such markets bet real money on specific outcomes, so this figure reflects not just sentiment but a quantitative assessment of probability from people willing to risk capital.
The fear and greed index stands at 26—in the ‘extreme fear’ zone. For context: values below 25 are traditionally considered a threshold signal of extreme market pessimism.
ETF Outflows Hit All-Time Records
It is the ETF data that provides the clearest picture of what is happening. In the week leading up to June 26, about $1.79 billion left U.S. bitcoin ETFs—the second-largest weekly outflow since these products launched in January 2024. Only one episode was worse, in late February 2025, when funds lost $2.61 billion in a week.
More telling than the single value is the duration of the streak itself. According to analysts, outflows have now been recorded for seven consecutive weeks, starting in mid-May—this exceeds the two previous records for duration, which were each limited to five weeks. Spot ether funds are moving in sync: over the same period, they lost $273.34 million, also for the seventh week in a row.
There is also a small positive signal in this bleak picture: the recent 10-day outflow streak of $2.7 billion from bitcoin ETFs has finally ended. This is not a trend reversal, but at least a sign that the sharpest phase of the sell-off may be gradually exhausting itself.
Retail ETF Holders Deep in the Red
For the typical investor who entered the largest bitcoin fund IBIT, the situation has resulted in significant losses. The average holder is now sitting on a loss of about 40%—a sharp contrast to mid-2025, when the same typical investor was seeing a profit of about 30%. The swing from plus 30% to minus 40% in a relatively short period is exactly the kind of move that flushes out retail investors with a short patience horizon.
The IBIT fund has attracted $60 billion in inflows over its lifetime, but net assets now stand at $44 billion—the difference reflects a drop in bitcoin’s price of more than 23% over the past two months. People did not necessarily sell their positions en masse: the decline in net assets is largely explained by the revaluation of the underlying asset, not just capital outflows.
Fed Stance Adds Pressure on Market
The sell-off coincided with a tightening of rhetoric from the Federal Reserve. At its latest meeting, the regulator kept rates unchanged but removed the word ‘easing’ from its final statement—a detail the market sees as a clear signal of a shift to a more hawkish stance. The probability of a rate hike in December is now estimated at over 50%.
For risk assets like cryptocurrencies, this is an unfavorable backdrop: the prospect of higher rates for longer than usual reduces the appeal of assets without fixed yields and pushes capital toward defensive instruments.
Why Pessimism May Be Overblown
Despite the bleakness of the current picture, there is a historical argument against panic. Every bitcoin bear cycle since 2009 has ended precisely in a phase of extreme fear—this is not a coincidence but a pattern typical of cyclical markets: the peak of pessimism statistically coincides with the lowest prices more often than with any other phase of the cycle.
Another factor is the upcoming halving, the next reduction in new bitcoin issuance by half, expected in about 21 months. Historically, halvings have acted as catalysts for subsequent growth cycles, although the exact cause-and-effect relationship remains debated among analysts.
There is also a structural difference in the current cycle compared to previous ones. For the first time, the market is going through a deep correction with significant institutional investor presence—via spot ETFs, bitcoin on the balance sheets of public companies, and growing regulatory clarity around digital assets. Previously, the market simply did not have this kind of institutional support, and this may change the characteristic recovery dynamics compared to past cycles.
What the Current Situation Means for the Market Overall
The ‘death cross’ on the Ethereum chart and the record ETF outflow streak create one of the bleakest technical and monetary backdrops of the past two years. However, none of these signals alone guarantees further declines—they reflect the current state of sentiment and positioning, not the future price trajectory.
The combination of extreme fear, institutional exit from risky positions, and hawkish central bank rhetoric creates conditions where any positive catalyst can trigger a sharp move in the opposite direction—this is exactly how previous capitulation phases in the crypto market have historically ended.
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