Ethereum is approaching a situation it has never faced in its entire history. Throughout all trading periods, ETH has never closed three consecutive quarters in the red. Now, however, the market is nearing such a scenario.
According to CoinGlass, Ethereum ended the fourth quarter of 2025 in negative territory. The first quarter of 2026 was also weak, and now all eyes are on the current quarter. At the moment, ETH remains up by more than 11%, but that may not be enough to change the overall picture.
A similar phase of weakness was seen in the crypto market in 2022. At that time, Bitcoin went through a series of losing quarters during the year, while Ethereum managed to break the negative trend with a gain of about 24% in the third quarter. However, in the fourth quarter, it went back into the red by about 10%.
Since then, ETH has only had a few instances where it closed two consecutive quarters in negative territory, but it has never reached three in a row.
Ethereum Under Pressure
The situation for ETH currently does not look favorable. Over the past year, it has lost more than 35% against Bitcoin. Since the start of this year, the decline has already exceeded 21%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin itself is not growing either, down about 6%, but as a result, its dominance remains above 60%.
Charts show that Ethereum is gradually losing ground and cannot hold previous levels. After a local peak, the price turned downward and is now again testing zones that previously acted as support. A similar pattern was seen in 2024, when the market sharply corrected.
If the current pressure persists, some analysts believe that ETH could lose another 40% relative to Bitcoin.
Ethereum quarterly returns (%), source: CoinGlass
Exchange data has once again fueled talk of possible selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant, Ethereum reserves on Binance have risen to 3.62 million ETH. This is about 24.6% of all ether held on exchanges.
Such growth is usually seen as a signal that some market participants may be preparing to sell and move coins to the market. There has also been a slight increase in open interest in ETH over the past day.
Over the past week, Ethereum fell by about 2%, but over the month it is still up by about 3.3%. Currently, ETH is trading at around $2,337.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, looks more stable. Over the week, it gained more than 2%, and over the month it rose by almost 12%. At the time of publication, BTC is trading at about $81,920.
Ethereum Still Considered a Candidate for ‘Crypto Spring’
Not all market participants are convinced that ETH remains under pressure. After recent sales by the Ethereum Foundation, talk of a possible sell-off resurfaced, but many believe the reaction was overly emotional.
Ethereum Foundation does periodically sell ETH to cover regular expenses, including grants, salaries, and development funding. There were also reports of withdrawals from staking totaling about $49.6 million, which sparked speculation. But this alone does not confirm the start of large-scale sales.
Institutional demand remains. BitMine Immersion Technologies, although it has slowed its pace of purchases, continues to accumulate ETH and remains the largest corporate holder of Ethereum. Last week, the company bought another 26,659 ETH. As a result, its reserves exceeded 5.2 million ETH, about 4.3% of the total supply. Most of these assets have already been sent to staking via the MAVAN platform.
Company head Tom Lee noted that the pace of purchases was deliberately reduced after periods when BitMine was buying over 100,000 ETH per week. At that pace, the company could have approached 5% of supply by mid-summer.
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He also highlights two key factors for Ethereum‘s future growth: tokenization on Wall Street and the development of agent AI. According to him, if ETH closes May 2026 above $2,100, it will be the third consecutive month of growth and could signal the start of a ‘crypto spring.’
Additional support is also coming from ETF funds. Last week, crypto funds saw inflows of about $857.9 million. Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $622 million, and Ethereum ETFs over $70 million.
There is now increased attention on the behavior of large holders and overall market liquidity. In times of heightened uncertainty, these factors often determine short-term price dynamics. If selling pressure eases over time, ETH will have a chance to stabilize within the current range.
Market participants are also closely watching the correlation between Ethereum and Bitcoin. In recent months, ETH has more often reacted to BTC movements with a delay, increasing volatility during sharp market reversals. This makes the coming weeks especially important for understanding whether Ethereum can hold current levels or will continue to lag behind the market.
