Large bitcoin holders have started closing leveraged long positions. According to data from Bitfinex and Bitstamp, the market has seen such moves before, and they usually appeared not at the peak of growth, but closer to reversal moments.
On Bitfinex the volume of long positions held by major players decreased after reaching around 73,000 BTC at the end of last month. Similar peaks in open longs have often coincided with phases when price pressure was easing.
In such situations, the market often cools off first and only then moves to the next phase. That is why many see the closing of leveraged longs by major players not as a sign of weakness, but as a possible signal that the market is looking for support before a new impulse.
Analysts Expect Bitcoin to Rise to $135,000
On X, there is increasing discussion of a scenario in which bitcoin could continue to rise and reach the $135,000 area. This was noted in particular by the educational crypto project Coin Bureau.
Crypto commentator MartyParty pointed out that the market has already gone through a similar phase in 2025. Then, after a prolonged pause, BTC rose from $74,000 to $112,000 in 43 days. In his opinion, the current movement structure looks familiar.
He also allows for the formation of a Wyckoff Spring. In such cases, the price briefly dips below support and then quickly returns to the range. The market often uses this technique to shake out weak positions before the next impulse.
On-chain data adds context. According to CryptoQuant, on Binance the bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio indicated an increase in available purchasing power. A similar situation was observed in March 2025, when BTC first fell from $109,000 to $74,000, then rebounded and set a new high around $126,000
See Also: Bitcoin Could Find a Bottom at $88,000 if the CME Gap Remains Unfilled
The macro backdrop also looks calmer than before. Wells Fargo head of macro strategy Michael Schumacher noted in a recent interview that volatility in financial markets has decreased. Usually, in such periods, interest in risky assets gradually returns.
This is also reflected in derivatives. Volumes in spot, futures, and derivatives are growing, and total open interest in BTC is starting to recover after a sharp reduction in leverage in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Mercado Bitcoin Expects BTC Market Cap to Double in 2026
Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin believes that in 2026, bitcoin’s market capitalization could roughly double. The exchange describes this scenario in its outlook for the crypto market.
The forecast is based on a comparison of bitcoin with gold. According to the Mercado Bitcoin team, it is precisely the properties of BTC that make it an increasingly convenient store of value, especially for large investors and organizations.
See Also: Buterin Proposes a Dollar-Free Index for More Decentralized Stablecoins
The report notes that gold still has familiar but inconvenient limitations related to storage and logistics. Against this backdrop, bitcoin looks simpler and more flexible: it is digital, not tied to borders, and allows assets to be stored without intermediaries.
At Mercado Bitcoin, institutional demand is highlighted separately. By their logic, money will continue to flow into crypto, especially if US regulation continues to open a legal path for large companies.
Other players have similar expectations. Researcher CoinShares James Butterfill previously said that this year bitcoin could reach the $120,000–$170,000 range.
And finance professor Carol Alexander from the University of Sussex projects a wider corridor for 2026: $75,000–$150,000, with a target around $110,000
