Grayscale Research believes that AAVE is currently trading below its fair value. According to analysts’ calculations, the token should be priced between $80 and $100, while on the market it was around $73. The discounted cash flow model was used for the assessment.
The base forecast from Grayscale is noticeably higher than the current price. The company believes that within a year, AAVE could rise to $179.11. This scenario is based on five factors.
Grayscale Presents Three Scenarios for AAVE
In the report, Aave is compared to a decentralized bank on the blockchain. The protocol operates without permissions and generates regular revenue. According to Grayscale, in 2026 Aave could earn about $60 million.
Analysts separately note the structure of income. Stablecoins are playing an increasingly important role, rather than more volatile crypto assets.
“Aave’s revenues are increasingly dependent on stablecoin activity, rather than volatile cryptocurrencies. This creates a more sustainable foundation for profits as the protocol grows,” the report says.
For calculations, Grayscale used multipliers more commonly applied to fintech companies. With a ratio of 20–25 annual profits, the fair capitalization of Aave falls in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion. This corresponds to an AAVE price of about $80 to $100.
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In addition, the company outlined three possible token trajectories for the next 12 months. The bearish scenario suggests growth to $90.91. The base case points to $179.11, while the bullish scenario allows for a rise to $270.57.
What the Grayscale Base Forecast Is Based On
The main scenario from Grayscale depends on several conditions. The company expects rapid growth of the stablecoin market and major partnerships within the Horizon framework.
Another important factor is the return of deposits that previously left the protocol. If some liquidity returns, this could support Aave‘s metrics.
Analysts also expect that the Aave application will attract a broader audience, not just DeFi users. Additional momentum could come from institutional interest in the Aave V4 architecture.
At Grayscale, they believe that all this can strengthen the protocol’s liquidity and push AAVE to the target level of $179.11.
Where AAVE Is Now
At the time of assessment, AAVE was trading around $73.88, and the project’s capitalization was approximately $1.17 billion. This is slightly below the lower bound of the fair value range named by Grayscale.
If the base scenario with growth to $179.11 is realized, the growth potential from current levels will be about 132%.
Aave (AAVE) Price Dynamics. Source: CoinMarketCap
Grayscale also highlighted several other projects that look strong in terms of price-to-fundamentals ratio. Among them are Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Sky, and Maple.
The forecast for AAVE appeared after a challenging period for the protocol. In April, the Kelp DAO exploit related to rsETH led to a sharp drop in deposits in Aave.
Nevertheless, Grayscale believes that the team's response to the incident helped the project maintain trust. Analysts noted transparent operations during the crisis and stated that this approach strengthened Aave‘s position in the eyes of institutional investors
