The price of MON skyrocketed at launch, but almost immediately started to fall. In four days, the token lost more than 47% from its highs. On the chart, it looks like a hype-driven surge followed by a sharp pullback. This is very similar to how Pi Coin behaved right after its launch.
Both projects are fresh Layer-1 solutions and both received a lot of attention at launch. But after listing, both quickly started to lose ground.
In this article, we compare the charts of MON and Pi Coin, and also analyze whether this is really a signal of long-term weakness, or if MON still has a chance to hold on.
Monad repeats Pi Coin’s drop right after listing
The Pi Coin token lost 86.57% of its price in just six weeks after hitting the exchange. Now it is trading more than 91% below its post-launch peak.
Pi Coin chart. Source: TradingView
Monad is following a similar path. In the first four days, it has already dropped by 47.57% from its maximum.
Monad chart. Source: TradingView
Both charts show the same signals:
- a sharp jump at the moment of listing,
- a quick and deep pullback immediately after.
The main difference is market conditions. Pi Coin launched in a stronger crypto market phase at the beginning of the year. And even then, despite Bitcoin’s growth in October, the token could not recover even half of its losses.
Monad is entering the market in a much weaker phase: liquidity is low, and major assets are barely staying afloat. So for now, everything is not in its favor.
Yes, the MON chart looks eerily familiar. But before drawing conclusions, it’s worth looking deeper — are there any early signs of stabilization in its structure, or does weakness still persist.
Support is weakening: big money is leaving
If you look inside the dynamics of Monad, the picture becomes even more alarming, especially if you watch how big players have behaved since listing.
The first signal was the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) indicator, which shows whether “smart money” is entering the asset or, on the contrary, leaving. After the initial spike at the end of October, the price stabilized a bit and that’s when CMF started giving readable signals. Since then, the capital flow line has only been moving down.
Since October 27, CMF has dropped by more than 270% and for most of the time remains below zero. This means that large buyers have left the market and are in no hurry to support the price.
Even figures like Arthur Hayes have already publicly expressed doubts about Monad, citing a noticeable outflow of capital.
Indicators show: big players have not returned
CMF for MON is now close to its lowest values since the token’s launch. Usually, this indicates a lack of interest from large holders. The market still lacks strong support.
Outflow of big money. Source: TradingView
The same thing was observed with Pi Coin in the first 20 days after listing. Back then, CMF collapsed by almost 330%, and the price continued to slide down for a long time.
CMF drop of Pi Coin. Source: TradingView
The second problem is the bull-bear power (BBP) indicator, which shows who currently controls the momentum: buyers or sellers. When BBP consistently goes negative and CMF hits new lows, even temporary bounces rarely end in a full reversal.
Bear dominance in Monad. Source: TradingView
If you combine all the signals, it becomes clear: there is still no serious buying pressure in MON. The chart remains bearish, and both indicators show that the market is not ready for a reversal. Even if a short-term bounce appears soon, without the return of large volumes and a change in momentum, sustainable growth is unlikely.
How far can Monad fall if the decline continues
Given the weak capital inflow and clear seller control, the last element is the price structure itself. On the 4-hour chart of MON since November 26, a downward trend is clearly visible, and the candles consistently stay within this slope without any hint of a reversal.
Right now, the chart is working like a “staircase down”: each failed bounce opens the way to the next level of decline.
If the price breaks through $0.026, the next obvious level will be $0.023. That is exactly where the trend projection points. And if the pressure continues and capital inflow keeps dropping, even $0.013 remains within the realm of possibility.
Yes, these levels seem low, but remember Pi Coin. It also didn’t stop at the first drops, and the MON chart structure looks all too familiar.
MON chart. Source: TradingView
For at least some stabilization, MON needs to return above $0.029. But that’s just the base. A real reversal signal will appear if the token consolidates above $0.039–0.040. Only then can we talk about a change in trend and a weakening similarity to Pi Coin.
So far, this hasn’t happened. MON is trading below key levels, capital inflow remains weak, and momentum is in the hands of the bears. If the situation doesn’t change, the downward movement will remain the main scenario, and the parallels with Pi Coin are more than appropriate.
