SpaceX is preparing for a listing that could become the largest in stock market history. Elon Musk’s company could be valued at $1.75 trillion, but the main U.S. index will not add it immediately after the IPO.
This changes the demand picture for investors. SpaceX will almost certainly attract strong interest at the start of trading, but will not receive automatic purchases from funds that track the S&P 500. The reason is not the company’s size, but the index’s rules.
Loss Becomes the Main Limitation
The S&P 500 does not include companies based solely on size. The index methodology has a financial filter: the issuer must be profitable in the last quarter and in the aggregate result for the four previous quarters.
SpaceX does not yet meet this criterion. In 2025, the company reported a net loss of nearly $5 billion. Therefore, even a valuation at the level of the largest tech giants does not give it a direct path to the S&P 500.
The S&P confirmed that it will not change its rules for a single listing. This is an important signal for the market: even the largest IPO is not a reason to revise the basic methodology. The index maintains its financial results filter, not just capitalization.
Why This Matters for Stock Demand
The strongest effect of the decision is related to passive funds. Strategies that replicate the S&P 500 automatically buy shares of companies after they are included in the index.
In the case of SpaceX, such a mandatory flow will not appear. The stock can be bought by active managers, private investors, funds tracking other indexes, and growth strategies. However, a huge portion of capital tied to the S&P 500 will remain outside the deal.
This does not cancel the excitement around the IPO. But it reduces support after the listing. If SpaceX were immediately included in the S&P 500, the market would receive a steady flow of orders from index funds. Now, that demand will depend on other sources.
Nasdaq Will Give SpaceX a Different Channel
Nasdaq proved to be more flexible. The exchange accelerated its rules so that SpaceX could be included in the Nasdaq 100 soon after going public. This will create mandatory purchases from funds tracking the Nasdaq. After inclusion, they will have to add SpaceX shares to their portfolios, which could support the price in the first weeks of trading.
However, the scale of this demand is lower than that of the S&P 500. The Nasdaq 100 will give SpaceX an important index channel, but will not replace the main U.S. benchmark. As a result, the company will get support from the tech index, but without full access to the largest base of passive capital.
Part of the Passive Market Will Still Open Up
SpaceX will not be completely excluded from index strategies. S&P is ready to adjust the rules for broader indexes.
FTSE Russell has also opened the way for SpaceX into its global indexes through an accelerated procedure. This means that some funds will still be forced to buy shares after the listing.
But the difference remains significant. The S&P 500 is the foundation for a huge volume of pension money, ETFs, and index portfolios. It is this flow that SpaceX will not receive for now, making the start of trading less protected from sharp fluctuations.
SpaceX’s Bitcoins Add a Crypto Angle
In its IPO documents, SpaceX reported 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet. Their base value is $661 million. Therefore, buying the company’s shares gives investors indirect exposure to bitcoin.
If SpaceX quickly entered the S&P 500, such exposure would automatically appear for a wide range of passive investors. Now, this effect will be limited. The Nasdaq 100 and global indexes will partially transmit the crypto connection to the market, but without the scale of the S&P 500.
For bitcoin, this is not a direct price factor, but an element of long-term perception. SpaceX could become another major public company with BTC on its balance sheet. But the absence of S&P 500 slows the speed at which this story enters passive portfolios.
Large Listings Could Pull Capital Away
SpaceX is entering the market at a time when investors are expecting several expensive IPOs at once. According to analysts, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic together could attract over $240 billion by the end of the year.
Such a volume could change the distribution of money in the market. Investors may reduce positions in already traded tech companies, the AI sector, and riskier assets to participate in new listings.
This also matters for the crypto market. When large IPOs absorb liquidity, demand for volatile assets may weaken. Especially if market participants are already cautious and prefer stories with more understandable institutional demand.
Wall Street Supported S&P’s Tough Stance
The chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth supported the S&P’s decision. In his opinion, making an exception for a large private company would be a weak argument if the business is not yet profitable.
This assessment explains the index’s position well. The S&P 500 does not want to become a ranking of the loudest companies. Its task is to select large businesses that meet financial requirements.
For SpaceX, this is not a final rejection. The company will be able to apply for inclusion later if it meets the profitability criterion. Until then, the largest Wall Street index will remain closed to it.
What’s Next?
SpaceX is expected to start trading on June 12. The listing could be historic and immediately put the company alongside the world’s largest public issuers.
However, the absence of the S&P 500 makes the situation less straightforward. Demand from the Nasdaq 100, global indexes, and active investors will be important, but the main source of automatic purchases will not be connected.
As a result, SpaceX is entering the market with a rare combination of factors: a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, bitcoins on the balance sheet, the largest IPO in history, and no access to the S&P 500. For investors, this means strong interest in the listing, but without full index protection after trading begins.
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