Stablecoin inflows to exchanges have fallen to their weakest level in a year and a half: the average figure dropped to 21,557 transactions per day. Analyst Zakaria Sharif believes this indicates a lack of buying capital and reduces Bitcoin’s chances for a confident recovery.
According to Sharif, the BTC price shows only part of the picture. On-chain metrics point to a deeper problem: liquidity that could quickly move into cryptocurrency has noticeably decreased. At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $62,397, remaining below the all-time high set in fall 2025.
What CryptoQuant Data Shows
According to CryptoQuant, the average stablecoin inflow to all exchanges is 21,557 transactions per day. This is 56.25% lower than recent levels. This figure helps assess how much capital is already on trading platforms and potentially ready to buy digital assets.
During the market rally in mid-2025, the picture was very different. Then, inflows regularly reached 100,000–280,000 transactions per day. It was this flow of money that created buying pressure and helped Bitcoin move upward.
Now this source of support has almost dried up. A stablecoin on an exchange, whether Tether or another dollar-pegged token, is often seen as capital in standby mode: it has already been deposited on the platform but has not yet been used in trades. If inflow is high, the market sees fresh demand. If it drops sharply, it means buyers prefer not to rush.
An additional signal comes from the stablecoin inflow rate of change indicator. According to Zakaria Sharif, in May 2026 it showed one notable spike, but this was not enough to change the overall trend. After a brief impulse, the figure returned to sideways movement, meaning the May capital inflow did not mark the start of a sustainable recovery.
Why Weak Inflow Matters for Bitcoin
For the market, stablecoins play the role of a quick source of demand. When investors hold such funds on exchanges, they can quickly buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets. High inflow usually means more ready liquidity appears on platforms: it is easier for traders to enter trades, and the market can better support growth. Low inflow, on the other hand, narrows the pool of money available for purchases and makes the price more vulnerable to selling.
In this sense, stablecoins are similar to an asset on a balance sheet: they do not guarantee future trades, but they show the presence of a resource that can be used. The less of this resource on exchanges, the weaker the base for a new impulse. With strong inflow, the market is more often supported and reacts faster to positive news. With weak inflow, even local rebounds can quickly fizzle out because there is not enough fresh capital behind them.
What You Should Know About Stablecoins
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies whose value is pegged to an external asset, most often the US dollar. Dollar stablecoins include, for example, USDT, USDC, BUSD, and DAI. They are used for trading, fast transfers, storing funds between trades, and protecting against sharp market fluctuations.
These coins work in different ways. Fiat-backed stablecoins maintain their peg through reserves in traditional assets. Crypto-backed ones use collateral in digital assets. Algorithmic stablecoins try to maintain price through issuance and supply reduction rules.
The reliability of a stablecoin depends not only on its name. Important factors are reserve backing, transparency of reporting, quality of management, regulation, and the resilience of technical infrastructure. Coins are considered more reliable if it is clearer what backs them and how the peg is maintained.
Risks remain as well. The user depends on the issuer, platform rules, reserve status, regulatory decisions, and possible technological failures. Therefore, a stablecoin is not the same as cash, even if its price usually stays around $1.
Banks treat stablecoins with caution because they compete with familiar payment and deposit services, are harder to fit into regulations, and can create risks for transfer controls and anti-money laundering efforts. Such assets are bought on crypto exchanges and placed for yield on platforms that support such operations.
Two Scenarios for the Market
Zakaria Sharif identifies two possible options. The first remains negative for buyers: if stablecoin inflow stays below 30,000 transactions per day for the next two weeks, Bitcoin may again test support in the $58,000–60,000 zone.
The second scenario assumes a reversal. For this, a steady inflow growth above 80,000–100,000 transactions per day is needed. The analyst sees this range as the first serious sign of buyers returning and a possible basis for more significant BTC growth.
Until this happens, the market remains constrained by weak purchasing power. Without new capital and liquidity growth, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to move to a sustainable uptrend, even if short-term rebounds continue.
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