The chances of the CLARITY Act passing this year have dropped to 60%, according to Galaxy Digital. The previous estimate was higher, but now Washington has too little time left before the August recess.
For the crypto market, this document is important as the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets in the U.S. It is supposed to determine which tokens and companies fall under the SEC, and where the CFTC will take the lead. But the political calendar, the debate over stablecoins, and demands for controls on illicit finance are once again slowing the process.
There Is Almost No Time Left for a Deal
The document has already passed the upper chamber’s banking committee. On May 14, 15 lawmakers supported it, while 9 opposed. After that, the market had hope that the crypto industry would finally get clear rules at the federal level.
Now the main risk is not a complete collapse of support, but the calendar. There are few working days left before the August recess, and the text still needs to go through several stages: gather 60 votes, withstand debates, amendments, and reconciliation with another version of the document.
July is becoming the decisive month. If the upper chamber’s leadership does not allocate time for consideration in the coming weeks, the discussion will almost certainly move to September. There, the bill will face the election agenda and tougher political calculations.
Other Conflicts Have Filled the Agenda
Crypto regulation is competing for time with more urgent topics. In recent weeks, the Senate has spent part of its working hours on other contentious issues: funding for ICE and the border service, as well as a separate administration fund. Because of this, the crypto bill has less time on the agenda.
Additional pressure came from the failure of the procedure on the section about foreign intelligence surveillance. The vote ended 47 to 52, and the authority expires in 4 days. This forces lawmakers to urgently return to the topic amid an already packed schedule.
In this situation, a complex crypto document is easy to postpone. The leadership will not spend rare floor time unless they are confident that the votes are already secured and contentious points are closed.
Main Disputes Remain Within the Text
The document still has several sensitive areas. Some Democrats demand the addition of provisions on ethics and conflicts of interest. Another group insists on stricter rules against money laundering, sanctions risks, and illegal transfers. A separate task is to reconcile the different approaches of the committees working on market structure. Without this, the final version cannot move forward.
The stakes are high for the industry. After many years of regulation through lawsuits and claims, businesses want to understand the rules of the game in advance. Exchanges, issuers, and investors need clarity, but compromise in Washington is getting harder each week.
Stablecoins Have Become the Sharpest Issue
The strongest conflict is around digital dollars. The banking lobby does not want crypto companies to be able to pay users income for holding stablecoins.
The banks’ concern is understandable. If such tokens start functioning like interest-bearing accounts, some money may leave regular deposits. At the same time, platforms will not meet the full set of banking requirements.
A compromise version may ban passive payouts simply for holding tokens, but allow bonuses for activity: payments, transfers, loyalty programs and trading operations. This boundary has become one of the main lines of dispute.
Crypto Companies Do Not Want to Give the Market to Banks
The industry believes that a strict ban on rewards will make digital dollars less attractive. For payment products, bonuses and incentives are often part of audience growth.
Banks respond that stablecoins should not become a substitute for deposits without the same obligations and oversight. The American Bankers Association has already promoted a survey claiming that consumers support protecting local lending and the financial system from interest-like payouts on digital dollars.
As a result, the dispute has become broader than a single bill. Washington is essentially deciding what stablecoins will be: a fast payment tool or a competitor to bank accounts.
What Happens Next?
The document’s chances may rise if three signals appear in early July: dedicated floor time, a compromise on ethics and illicit finance, and a reconciled text between committees.
If this does not happen, consideration will almost certainly shift to the fall. Then the process will be more strongly influenced by elections, party battles, and the new Congressional agenda.
For now, the bill remains alive, but its window is narrowing. The crypto industry has only a few weeks to see real progress. Without it, the first major regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S. risks getting stuck in the political cycle again.
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