Bitcoin and gold once again came under pressure after the release of U.S. inflation data. In May, the consumer price index rose by 4.2% year-over-year, weakening hopes for a rapid Fed rate cut.
This is an unpleasant signal for the market. The longer inflation stays above the regulator’s target, the less chance there is for an easy monetary policy.
Rates have remained unchanged since December 2025.
And without rate cuts, risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, get less support from liquidity.
The Fed Is Not Rushing to Cut Rates
The consumer price index shows how the cost of goods and services is changing for American households. This is one of the key indicators the Fed looks at when deciding on rates.
Theo’s head of investments at the institutional trading company, Iggi Ioppe, said that such data keeps the regulator’s cautious stance. According to him, the Fed remains data-dependent and does not have a convincing reason for a rapid rate cut.
Inflation in the U.S. has reached a three-year high.
For bitcoin, this does not provide a strong signal for growth. Inflation has not become a new positive catalyst, and liquidity expectations remain limited. Therefore, the market depends more on investor positioning than on hopes for a quick policy easing.
Bitcoin Has Already Had a Weak First Half of the Year
BTC has dropped significantly since the start of the year. According to the source, bitcoin’s price has fallen by about 36% since January. Gold has also lost ground, falling 23% from its January high.
At the same time, oil has risen by more than 50%. This is an important detail because rising energy prices can once again push inflation expectations higher. If oil continues to rise, it will be harder for the Fed to shift to a dovish tone.
This background is unpleasant for bitcoin. The asset remains sensitive to the cost of money. When the market prices in high rates, investors are more likely to cut positions in volatile instruments.
Gold Is Also Losing Support
It is not just the crypto market feeling the pressure. Ioppe noted that gold also remains in a difficult position because real yields remain the key factor.
Gold does not generate interest income. When rates and bond yields remain high, it becomes more expensive for investors to hold the metal in their portfolios. In such an environment, some capital moves to instruments that provide yield.
This makes the current situation unusual. Normally, gold is seen as a safe-haven asset, and bitcoin as riskier. But now both instruments are suffering from the same factor: the market does not see a near-term Fed pivot to rate cuts.
Wall Street Is Not Rushing Back to BTC
Markus Thielen of 10x Research believes that the current macroeconomic environment remains a headwind for bitcoin. According to him, the latest inflation data is not strong enough for major investors to actively reallocate capital into BTC again.
Institutional players will likely want to see more convincing signs of a sustained decline in inflation. Until then, they may remain cautious and not increase the share of bitcoin in their portfolios.
Thielen also pointed to the Iran factor. Escalation of the conflict increases uncertainty and creates a risk of oil supply disruptions. If such risks intensify in the summer, inflation expectations may rise again.
The Risk of Falling Below $60,000 Remains
According to 10x Research, bitcoin remains vulnerable. Thielen believes that a break below $60,000 in the coming days is looking increasingly likely.
This is not only due to inflation itself. The market is simultaneously pressured by rate expectations, geopolitics, rising oil, and institutional investor caution. In such an environment, even moderately neutral data does not become a reason for a strong recovery.
For BTC buyers, the area around $60,000 remains an important zone. If the price does not hold above this level, the market may move to a new stage of decline or at least more nervous trading.
Risk Appetite Will Not Return Immediately
HashKey Group senior researcher Tim San believes that expectations of a rate hike are indeed rising, but the likelihood of such a Fed move this year still remains relatively low.
In his view, a real turnaround in sentiment is only possible under three conditions: inflation must decrease, a rate cut must again become a real scenario, and the cost of capital must fall.
Until that happens, the market will remain cautious. According to CME futures data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its June 17 meeting is estimated at about 98.4%. So the next decision is unlikely to bring sharp changes, but the regulator’s tone will be important.
What’s Next?
Bitcoin has found itself in a situation where a technical rebound alone is not enough. The market needs signs that inflation is truly slowing, the Fed is ready for a softer policy, and oil risk will not increase price pressure.
For gold, the picture is similar. As long as real yields remain high, the metal will compete with instruments that generate interest income. This limits demand even for safe-haven assets.
The main takeaway is simple. Inflation above 4% has once again made the Fed rate the main factor for markets. Until investors see a sustained decline in price pressure, bitcoin and gold may remain under pressure, and the risk of BTC falling below $60,000 will persist.
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